Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2002

TSTMS FIRING IN VICINITY OF DRYLINE OVER TX/OK PANHANDLES WILL MOVE
EAST INTO WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...
WEAKENING BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS NOT SHOWING MUCH ENHANCEMENT
IN THE CU FIELD AT THIS TIME... SUGGESTING DRYLINE INDUCED
CONVECTION MAY BE THE PRIMARY SHOW. WILL GO HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
WEST OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY AROUND 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL
SECTIONS. IF CURRENT TX CONVECTION EVOLVES INTO AN MCS... MAY NEED
TO RAISE POPS OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE
DRYLINE MAY CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TSTMS POSSIBLY MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS. MID
LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE WARMING DURING THIS PERIOD... WHICH COULD LIMIT
COVERAGE AND EASTERN EXTENT OF STORMS.

IN THE LONGER TERM... ACOLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA LATE WED AFTN AND INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THURS MORNING
WHERE IT IS FCST TO BECOME STATIONARY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT FCST OF A CHANCE OF TSTMS ON WEDNESDAY IN MOST AREAS. WILL
ALSO MAINTAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR TSTMS ON THURSDAY IN THE SOUTHERN
ZONES DUE TO THE FRONT STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA WHILE 850
MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION. COULD BE SOME ELEVATED STORMS EARLY FRIDAY WITH WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE AFTN/EVE HOURS
IN THE WEST WHERE DRYLINE MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN MOST
PLACES ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. FRONT
WILL COOL TEMPS A COUPLE CATEGORIES WED AND THURSDAY...BEFORE
WARMING BACK UP STARTING FRIDAY.

FCSTID = 32
OKC   67  85  67  86 /  40  10  10   0
HBR   66  89  66  90 /  60  20  20  20
SPS   68  88  69  89 /  50  10  10   0
GAG   61  89  63  90 /  60  30  30  20
PNC   65  85  65  87 /  40  10  10   0
DUA   69  86  70  87 /  40  10  10   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.

TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-060300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
350 PM CDT SUN MAY 5 2002

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD IN
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...TO OKLAHOMA CITY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO LAKE
TEXOMA IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. EAST OF THIS LINE...THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
AROUND SUNSET. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER DURING
THE EARLY EVENING. THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER AND
SPREAD EAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...HOWEVER A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO
DEVELOP IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS THE MODERATE
AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLE OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS HAD ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM
AT MID-AFTERNOON... AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. BY EVENING... SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL REACH THE WESTERN PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND BORDERING AREAS
OF NORTH TEXAS. WIND PROFILES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SUPERCELL STORMS... WITH THE ACCOMPANYING RISKS OF LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS... AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. LATE THIS EVENING...
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE THEIR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND
MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX... WITH THE MAIN THREATS BECOMING
HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COMPLEX WOULD LIKELY AFFECT THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORMAN FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT IF IT DOES DEVELOP.

A WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW STORMS
NEAR THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...
THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING AND ITS INFLUENCE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF MORE THAN A FEW STORMS. LIKE THE PANHANDLE
STORMS... CONDITIONS NEAR THE RED RIVER ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SUPERCELL STORMS... IF THE STORMS CAN DEVELOP.

THREAT TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT MON MAY 6.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...70 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

CMS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
842 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0800 PM    9 S ARNETT                OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/05/02   ELLIS                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC

0830 PM    8 S HARMON                OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/05/02   ELLIS                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC

JLP

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
859 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0850 PM    5 W VICI                  OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/05/02   DEWEY                          SPOTTER REPORT

JLP

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
909 PM CDT SUN MAY 05 2002

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0900 PM    4 S VICI                  OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/05/02   DEWEY                          SPOTTER REPORT

0904 PM    VICI                      OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/05/02   DEWEY                          SPOTTER REPORT

JLP