Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Norman, OK

000 
WGUS74 KOUN 301221
FFSOKC
OKC069-301300-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
721 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2002

THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR JOHNSTON COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE AT 8 AM. RADAR INDICATES THAT HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA 
HAVE DISSIPATED. RAIN WILL END OVER MUCH OF THE COUNTY BY 8 OR 9 AM. 
THIS RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING...BUT 
RUNOFF FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED 
HIGH WATER IN SOME STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS FOR A WHILE THIS 
MORNING.

AS OF 7 AM...THE OKLAHOMA MESONET STATION IN CENTRAL JOHNSTON COUNTY 
HAD RECORDED 2.77 INCHES OF RAIN...NEARLY ALL OF WHICH FELL BETWEEN 
4 AND 7 AM. RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT SOME RURAL AREAS 
BETWEEN TROY AND MANNSVILLE MAY HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 3 AND 6 
INCHES. 

LAT...LON 3443 9641 3420 9640 3418 9694 3442 9687

24

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2002

FOCUS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE S/SE IN PROXIMITY TO SHEAR AXIS.
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS AXIS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THIS
TREND WILL LIKELY CONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. WILL KEEP POPS
GOING TODAY MAINLY SOUTH OF I-44 CORRIDOR. SHEAR AXIS WEAKENS AND
GRADUALLY MOVES FURTHER SOUTH OVER NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EAST ACROSS AREA. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING ACROSS THE
SOUTH THRU WED CLOSER TO THE AXIS.

FLAT UPPER RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO BUILD EAST ACROSS AREA WITH
DESCENT ZONAL FLOW CONFINED TO NORTHERN PART OF U.S. MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER SFC FRONT MOVING INTO NRN KS BY THU MORNING AS STRONG UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA. AVN LOOKS TO TRY AND BACK DOOR THE
FRONT THRU PARTS OF OK THU NIGHT...BUT AS BETTER FLOW REMAINS WELL
NORTH OF AREA THINK TAIL END OF FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NORTH
ACROSS KS AND WILL NOT BE A FACTOR FOR US AS FAR AS PRECIP IS
CONCERNED. ALTHOUGH WITH RIDGE AND S/SW LOW LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE
FRONT THINGS WILL HEAT UP ACROSS OK/N TX AND WILL LIKELY BE BACK
ABOVE NORM TEMPS BY THU.

HOT DRY WX LOOKS TO CONT INTO WEEKEND. AVN FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME SHOWS
SEVERAL WAVES MOVING AROUND NRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE...WHICH TRY TO
BEAT THE RIDGE DOWN AND TRY TO PUSH A FRONT INTO NW OK BY SAT AFTN.
THE NEW MRF CONT THIS TREND AS UPPER RIDGE BY WEEKEND BUILD NORTH
ACROSS WESTERN U.S. ALLOWING NW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER PLAINS AND HAS
A COUPLE MCS SIGNATURES NEAR/OVER STATE SUN/MON. EUROPEAN
DISAGREES AND HAS FLAT RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST WITH WEAK TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS NW U.S. WITH THESE UNCERTAINTIES WILL LEAVE
EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW AND WATCH TRENDS OF MODELS NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FCSTID = 30
OKC   92  72  95  73 /  20   0  10   0
HBR   94  71  96  73 /  10   0   0   0
SPS   92  72  96  73 /  30  20  20   0
GAG   95  69  98  71 /   0   0   0   0
PNC   93  72  96  73 /  10   0   0   0
DUA   92  73  95  73 /  40  20  20  10

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.