Special Marine Warning 21, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2002

SHORT RANGE DISC...WIDELY SCT SHWRS/TSTMS CONT TO DEVELOP RANDOMLY
ACROSS THE REGION. ILL CARRY A 20 PCT POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THEM UNTIL
SUNSET. ANY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM LOWER AND UPPER LVL
TROUGHS SHOULD BE DISPLACED EAST OF THE AREA BY SUNSET FINALLY
BRINGING AN END TO ANY CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS.

MEDIUM RANGE DISC...AS THE UPPER LVL TROUGH CONTS EWD OFF THE NEW
ENG CST...AN UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD SLOWLY NEWD OVR THE GRT LKS.
THE LCL AREA WILL BE UNDER STG NVA AND SUBSIDENCE THROUGH
SUNDAY...PROVIDING US WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR SAT...THE HIGHEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR NORTH AND WEST OF NYC AS
SFC WINDS BECOME NW AND DOWNSLOPE KICKS IN UNDER FULL SUNSHINE. AS
SHOWN BY THE SUNY MM5 FCST MDL...SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
LATER DURG THE AFTN AND WILL BE WEAK...AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WIND
GRAD WEAKENS THROUGH EARLY AFTN.

FOR SUN...I WOULD EXPECT SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EARLIER AND BE
STRONGER WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

AS FOR FCST TEMPS...ILL GO WITH THE COMPOSITE BETWEEN THE NGM MOS
AND AVN MOS FCST TEMPS THROUGH SUNDAY.

EXTENDED FCST FOR MON THRU WED...LOOK FOR A GRADUAL INC. IN BOTH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS A SERIES OF MAINLY WEAK IMPULSES REFLECTED BY
WEAK COLD FRONTS AT THE SFC SLIDE SEWD DOWN AN UPPER LVL RIDGE ALONG
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES. I WILL IGNORE ANY QPF
FCSTS FOR THE INITIAL WV DURING LATE SUNDAY...BUT WILL ADD A CHC OF
SHWRS/TSTMS FOR THE SECOND STRONGER WV TUE AFTN AND EARLY TUE NGT.

FOR MARINERS...ILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS ATTM. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE BELOW 5 FT. WELL PROBABLY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THIS ADVISORY
LATER THIS EVE.

.OKX...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SCA FOR ROUGH SEAS ANZ350-353-355.

GC