Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1038 AM CDT SUN AUG 25 2002

EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE PLATEAU, WITH VERY FEW
RETURN ECHOES ON THE SCOPE INSIDE OUR CWA. SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND PLATEAU COUNTIES,
WITH SOME CLEARING AROUND THE METRO AREA AND NORTHWARD. SURFACE-
BASED STABILITY PLOTS SHOW MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS LOCATED IN THIS AREA
OF CLEARING, AND FULLY EXPECT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO BEGIN
OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.

WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT SHORTLY TO REFLECT THESE
CHANGES.

.BNA...NONE.

ROSE

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075>080-093>097-261030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
100 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2002

LOOK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THIS AFTERNOON. AS EXPECTED, THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HAS FORMED OVER NORTHERN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE, DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND GREATER SURFACE HEATING DURING
THE MORNING, AND THEREFORE MORE INSTABILITY. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
SPREAD TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES, AND LOW LEVEL WARMING CONTINUES.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NEARLY ALL OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE ONLY
AREAS NOT COVERED BY THIS RISK ARE THOSE AROUND CLARKSVILLE,
SPRINGFIELD, DICKSON, WAVERLY, AND DOVER. THE PRIMARY DANGER FROM
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE DAMAGING WINDS FROM WET
MICROBURSTS. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FROM INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY ALSO
CAUSE BRIEF, MINOR FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND DRAINAGE DITCHES IN
URBAN AREAS.

BECAUSE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ISOLATED, ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTERS IS UNLIKELY
ON A LARGE SCALE. HOWEVER, YOU ARE STILL URGED TO MONITOR THE
WEATHER IN YOUR AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD YOU NEED TO
TAKE COVER.

ROSE