Severe Thunderstorm Warning 195, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
950 AM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

RETRANSMITTING THIS MORNING ANALYSIS WITH...BNA 12Z SOUNDING IS MORE
UNSTABLE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH LI OF MINUS 7.2 AND PW OF 2.06
INCHES. RAIN POPS LOOK GOOD WITH UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
CWA AT 9AM RANGE FROM LOW 80S TO MID 70S.  EARLIER FORECAST PACKAGE
IS ALSO ON TRACK WITH TEMPERATURES AND WINDS...NO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED TO EARLY MORNING PACKAGE.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACE THE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. CONVECTION WHICH FIRED EARLIER THIS EVENING IN
ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY HAS DIMINISHED SOME...PARTICULARLY ON THE
WESTERN FLANK WHERE THE MOISTURE IS NOT AS DEEP.

BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH TODAY AND WILL REACH THE KY TN
LINE THIS EVENING. WILL INCLUDE A CATEGORICAL POP ACROSS THE PLATEAU
AS PER THE BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND THE CURRENT RADAR
TRAJECTORY OF THE ONGOING PRECIP. ELSEWHERE...WILL STICK WITH LIKELY
POPS REMINDER OF THE CWA AS A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH HELPS AID WITH THE
CONVECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT THE LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES
AS THE BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH. POSITIONING AND MOISTURE FIELDS IN
RELATION TO THE 850 FRONT ARE NOT IN SUPPORT OF A LARGE WIDESPREAD
DEGREE OF RAINFALL NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL
THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH JUST A CHANCE OF SHWRS AND STORMS ON
THURSDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY PICK UP AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MO AND IL. TROUGHING
LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH SO THAT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH TAKES PLACE. WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE
STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
WORKING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS ENERGY IN ADVANCE OF
THE MAIN TROUGH COMBINES WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA.

TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF SEASONAL FOR HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS FOR MINS...GUIDANCE LOOKS TO COOL FOR FRIDAY MORNING AS
MOS MAY BE TOO COOL AS IT IS NOT INTRODUCING A RETURN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW.

BNA TE 089/071 085/068 084 21654
CSV TE 083/066 081/062 078 21854

.BNA...NONE.

31

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE,TN
223 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0135 PM    FT CAMPBELL               TN   WIND DAMAGE
07/10/02   MONTGOMERY                     HAM RADIO REPORTS OF TREES
                                          DOWN AT FT CAMPBELL ON THE
                                          TENNESSEE SIDE.

0200 PM    EASTERN SECTION           TN   58 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
07/10/02   CLAY                           HIGHWAY DEPARTMENT
                                          REPORTED A TREE DOWN IN THE
                                          EASTERN PART OF CLAY
                                          COUNTY.

0245 PM    NORTHWEST SECTION         TN   58 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
07/10/02   BEDFORD                        HIGHWAY DEPARTMENT
                                          REPORTED TREES DOWN IN THE
                                          NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
                                          COUNTY.

0308 PM    COUNTYWIDE                TN   WIND DAMAGE
07/10/02   DAVIDSON                       DAVIDSON COUNTY OEM
                                          REPORTED NUMEROUS TREES
                                          DOWN AND SCATTERED POWER
                                          OUTAGES. AREAS AFFECTED
                                          WERE JOELTON...WHITES
                                          CREEK...AND DONELSON.

KV