Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
238 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

TSTM ACTIVITY A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. STORMS FIRING NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS ALONG
THE NC/TN BORDER AS WELL AS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA AND
NEAR DICKSON. FOR THIS EVENING WILL INCLUDE A 20 POP ACROSS THE AREA
BUT MAY NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD DEPENDING ON FUTURE RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT THE MOS TEMPERATURE VALUES FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MOISTURE RETURN CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE FROPA WILL NOT LIKELY
OCCUR UNTIL SOMETIME AROUND 12Z THU...PRE FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC PRESSURE MINIMA TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE ACTUAL FRONT.

WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM POPS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
60 HOUR MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT AS THE ETA APPEARS TO BE TOO
DEEP WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EVEN IF THE ETA
IS CORRECT...THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE PULLING OUT WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT THE NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE WARM FRONT.

GIVEN THE AVN SOLUTION BEYOND 60 HOURS...THE FRONT WILL WORK BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP PRECLUDING
THIS. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF IS
STILL INDICATED WITH IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OUT AHEAD OF IT.
WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

BNA BW 071/088 068/078 063 2573
CSV BW 068/084 066/075 060 2566

.BNA...NONE.

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