Severe Thunderstorm Warning 360, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2002

TIMING OF FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY WITH 00Z ETA LITTLE SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUS RUN IN BRINGING SYSTEM ACROSS.

COLD FRONT AT 06Z EXTENDED FROM NWRN MN THROUGH SERN SD AND NWRN NEB.
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUED JUST EAST OF THE AREA OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL IA WITH RECENT DEVELOPMENT FROM SWRN MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEB IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. MODELS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING OF FRONT
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NORTHERN PARTS OF FA HAVING BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TODAY...THEN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL AND SRN PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.  DUE TO SLOWER TIMING BY MODELS AND LIMITED H85 MOISTURE
BY BOTH ETA AND AVN HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS AND TIMING OF PRECIP FOR
SERN AREAS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BASED ON FRONTAL POSITION AND RAIN
AREA. NOT AS GREAT A CONTRAST ON THURSDAY BUT POSITION AND EXTENT OF
CLOUDS AND RAIN AGAIN HAVING MAIN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM THIS FORECAST.

NO CHANGE TO EXTENDED PERIOD AT THIS TIME WITH SECONDARY PUSH OF
COOLER AIR AND CHANCE OF RAIN STILL INDICATED BY AVN FOR SATURDAY.
NEW MRF AND ECMWF SHOWING MORE COOL AIR COMING IN FOR THE TUE-WED
PERIOD NEXT WEEK.

.OMA...NONE.
FOBERT

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-252330-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 AM CDT WED SEP 25 2002

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
IN
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  SHEAR AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY ARE GREAT
ENOUGH TO FIRE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL.

ON THURSDAY THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
BUT AGAIN NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATIC
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/OAX OR AT WEATHER.GOV (LOWER CASE)

***PLEASE NOTE***
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY WFO OMAHA/VALLEY WILL
BE SENT USING A DIFFERENT IDENTIFIER STARTING OCTOBER 1, 2002.
THE NEW IDENTIFIER IS...

   WMO HEADING...	FLUS43 KOAX
   AWIPS ID......	HWOOAX

THE NEW IDENTIFIER IS RESERVED FOR THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
ONLY.

ERVIN