Severe Thunderstorm Warning 347, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
230 PM CDT SUN SEP 1 2002

FORECAST CONCERNS CHANCE FOR TSTMS TNGT AND MONDAY

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS RATHER WEAK AS SURFACE TROF
ACROSS ERN SD INTO NW KS SLOWS EAST MVMNT AND WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO
PRES FALLS LEE OF NRN RCKYS AS NEXT SGFNT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS
ALBERTA AND MT MOVES ESEWD...STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OAVER AREA TNGT WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN
PLACE AS WEAKER DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE FROM WRN SD INTO ERN CO MOVES
EWD. AS THIS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ESEWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS
INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY RATHER STRONG CDFNT MOVES ACROSS
AREA MONDAY BRINGING CONTINUED CONCERN FOR TSTMS. HOWEVER TIME OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH VEERING OF FLOW TO MORE SWLY WITH H85
DRYING AHEAD OF FNT AREA NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD TSTMS.
OVERALL WOULD APPEAR PTNS OF SE NEB AND SW IA HAVE HIER POTENTIAL
FOR TSTMS MON AFTN AND EARLY EVE. AFTER THIS CHANCE APPEARS MON
NIGHT AND TUE WILL BE DRY AS MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR MASS TAKES
HOLD. SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPES BACK INTO AREA TUE
NIGHT INTO WED AS WMFNT LIFTS NWD WITH STRONG POSITIVE THETA E
ADVECTION. THU AND FRI OF EXTENDED PERIODS APEAR MAINLY DRY AND WARM
WITH NEXT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ABOUT SAT AS NEXT CDFNT
INDICATED TO MOVE INTO REGION.

.OMA...NONE.

WIESE