Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
405 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGES...CHC OF TSRA DURING THE PD...TEMPS/HEAT.

SYNOPSIS...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRES CNTRD OVR THE
DAKOTAS WITH S FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KTS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPS
RANGED FM THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN
THE 60S.  IR STLT/OBS INIDICATING SOME PATCHY MID CLDS ACRS SRN NEB
AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STROKES IN CO.  THIS AREA IN LOW/MID LVL
MOISTURE AXIS WITH NW FLOW AT H5 AND H85 PROFILERS S AT 15 TO
20KTS.  HIGH TEMPS TODAY WERE AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER AND
MID 90S.  ACCOMPANYING H85 TEMPS WERE 21-24 DEG C.

FORECAST...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MASS FIELDS IN SHORT TERM.
HEIGHTS REMAIN HIGH FM 588 TO 591 DM.  MAIN UPR TROF SWINGS THRU WED
NIGHT/THU...WITH MULTIPLE SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN FLOW FRI AND
BEYOND.  THE 00Z CANADIAN AND UKMET ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SFC
FNT THAN THE ETA...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE AVN.  THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE FCST AREA TOD AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 25-29 DEG C
WITH INCREASING H85 SW WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH BETTER MIXING
SUNSHINE AND WRMR H85 TEMPS HAVE INCREASED HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 95 TO
102 DEG RANGE.  MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY GENERATED QPF OVR THE NE
THIS AFT AND EVE AND NEW MESOETA STILL HANGING ON TO THIS.  WRM MID
LVL TEMPS TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER FEEL SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
JUST ABOVE H7 AND HEATING TODAY AROUND 100 TO INCLUDE A SLT CHC NE
ZONES TAF AND THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROF.
SFC FNT RMNS TO THE WEST AND ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPS 98 TO 104.
WITH SLOWER MOVEMENT OF FRONT HAVE INCREASED HIGHS THUR SRN ZONES.
HAVE BACKED OFF POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THU AS FNT APPEARS MORE ACTIVE TO
THE WEST AND S.

IN LATER PERIODS...FRI/SAT STILL LOOK UNSETTLED WITH MOISTURE
RETURNING AND SFC FNT/SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THROUGH.  SUN AND
MON...CONTINUED DRY AND COOLER TREND.

.OMA...NONE.

ZAPOTOCNY

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-301800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
530 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2002

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

THE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES SOAR TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.  VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE PASSAGE OF A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF THUNDERSTORMS.  SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THEY
MAY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.  DUE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR
PROFILES...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS.

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  READINGS SHOULD
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S AND SOME ABOVE 100 DEGREES.  DURING THE
PEAK OF THE DAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO
110 DEGREES AND ON WEDNESDAY FROM 105 TO 115 DEGREES.  NIGHT TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...DROPPING
BACK INTO THE 70S.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATIC
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/OAX OR AT WEATHER.GOV (LOWER CASE).

ZAPOTOCNY

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-301801-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1015 AM CDT TUE JUL 30 2002

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT IN EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

THE AIRMASS OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES SOAR TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.  VERY WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THE PASSAGE OF A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE
ENOUGH TO TOUCH OFF AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP...
MAY BECOME SEVERE.  DUE TO FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

VERY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND WESTERN IOWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  READINGS SHOULD
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S AND SOME ABOVE 100 DEGREES.  DURING THE
PEAK OF THE DAY...HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO
110 DEGREES AND ON WEDNESDAY FROM 105 TO 115 DEGREES.  NIGHT TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT...DROPPING
BACK INTO THE 70S.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATIC
INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/OAX OR AT WEATHER.GOV (LOWER CASE).

GW