Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
335 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2002

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN AREA OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME. THIS AREA OF PRECIP IS PROJECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE FIRST PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
TENNESSEE THUS IT APPEARS THAT EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH QPFS ARE UNLIKELY
DESPITE RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS OF >1.5 INCHES. WILL NOT ISSUE A FFA AT
THIS TIME ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL PRECEDED THE FRONT SUGGESTING SOME STORMS
MAY BE STRONG ALSO. MODELS ALSO PROJECT A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS. HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN THE FIRST PERIOD.

FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON TAKING THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP WITH IT. SOME QUESTION REMAINS ABOUT PRECIP LINGERING
INTO THE SECOND PERIOD. ETA TIME-HEIGHTS SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS ALONG WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL LIFT. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIFT AND PROJECT PRECIP WILL BE COMPLETELY OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE SECOND PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...AM INCLINED
TO HOLD ON TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

GENERALLY BENIGN ALBEIT INITIALLY COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE WELL
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BEFORE REBOUNDING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPS.
FAVORED HIGHER NGM MOS POPS.

FCSTID = 23
THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ARE PRELIMINARY AND FOR COORDINATION ONLY:
CHA   76  51  72  47 /  90  20  10   0
TYS   73  48  67  45 / 100  20  10   0
TRI   70  47  65  41 / 100  30  10   0
OQT   72  48  68  45 / 100  20  10   0

.MRX...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY FOR ZONES NCZ060>061.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY FOR ZONES TNZ012>018...TNZ035>047...
TNZ067>074...TNZ081>087...TNZ098>102.

VA...WIND ADVISORY FOR MONDAY FOR ZONES VAZ001>002...VAZ005>006...
VAZ008.

LCM

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-132000-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
415 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...EAST TENNESSEE AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...

A COLD FRONT IN THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST....AND APPROACH SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...EAST TENNESSEE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...EAST TENNESSEE AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH STRONG WINDS A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP...A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...AND SMALL HAIL.

AREA SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND FAVORITE RADIO AND
TV STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LCM