Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

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AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
310 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHERN IL AND SOUTHEAST MO.  GETTING A LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH NEAR MS RIVER
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT ON MOVING FRONT AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT.  AVN WAS THE QUICKEST.
LOOKING AT CURRENT PRECIP...THINK THE SLOWER ETA MAY BE BETTER.
MODELS DO AGREE ON BRING A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET AND GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.  ALSO PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING INTO OUR
AREA.  WILL KEEP 100 POPS FOR TONIGHT AND KEEP MENTION OF POSSIBLE
SEVERE.  FOR VETERANS DAY...SLOWER ETA KEEPS SHOWERS AROUND FOR MOST
OF THE DAY...WHILE AVN ONLY SHOWING CHANCE POPS EARLY.  WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS GOING IN THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS AND CHANCE
POPS ELSEWHERE...THEN KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR EVERYONE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD SEE DRIER WEATHER LATE.  ANOTHER WAVE MOVES
IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.  AVN FURTHER NORTH AND QUICKEST WITH
THE PRECIP.  WILL ONLY GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS QUITE LOW AS
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW LITTLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL EVENTS. AS SUCH...WILL BASICALLY CONTINUE WITH ONGOING
EXTENDED FORECAST WITH ONLY A FEW TWEAKS HERE AND THERE. WILL
INTRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR DAY 7 AND GENERALLY FOLLOW GFS ENSEMBLE
MOS FOR TEMPS.

CHA   63  67  47  56 / 100  40  30  40
TYS   61  64  45  53 / 100  40  30  40
TRI   59  62  42  50 / 100  60  30  40
OQT   61  64  45  53 / 100  40  30  40

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

GH/LM

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LATE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
1020 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA.
MORE MOVING UP FROM AL/GA.  THINK IT WILL ONLY BE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
FOR MOST OF TODAY...BUT WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTH WITH BETTER COVERAGE EXPECTED BY 00Z.  SEVERE WEATHER NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING...WHEN FRONT GETS CLOSER.  WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST WIND...SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE WARMING UP DESPITE SOME
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

GH

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EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
415 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

POWERFUL UPR LVL JET DRIVING E THRU PLAINS STATES INTO MID SOUTH
TODAY AND TONITE BRINGING S/WV FEATURES TO REGION THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN LATER TODAY AND TONITE. BEST UPR SUPPORT BUILDING NE INTO OHIO
VLY EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT AND SCT
CONVECTION PRESSING E INTO FA THIS MORNING AND WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW LVL WINDS AHD OF PLAINS STATES TROF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB
ALLOWING LIS TO DROP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN THE ACTION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT AHD OF FNT TWD EVENING. SPC HAS
PLACED FA IN MDT RISK FOR EVENT TONITE AND WILL USE SVR WORDING IN
ZONES TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. FNT EXITS FA ARND 12Z BUT WILL
KEEP SOME POPS THRU MON AS TRAILING VORT SWINGS NE THRU BASE OF UPR
TROF. TEMPS WILL BE A MAJOR STORY TODAY AS NEAR RECORD WARMTH
POSSIBLE WITH EARLY MORNING READINGS ALREADY IN MID 60S AND WITH
TIGHTENING PRES GRAD MID TO UPR 70 DEGREE TEMPS APPEAR REACHABLE.
STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE BLEND THRU REMAINDER FCST.

CHA   78  57  66  43 /  70 100  30  30
TYS   75  56  63  41 /  60 100  30  30
TRI   74  56  60  39 /  60 100  40  30
OQT   75  56  63  41 /  60 100  30  30

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EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
905 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2002

FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION.  CONVECTIVE PCPN IS DEVELOPING OVER WRN THIRD OF
TN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING 500 MB SHORTWAVE.  MOST LIGHTNING
IS ALONG OR W OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE BEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED...
SO MAINLY SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST WRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT.  MAY SLIGHTLY RAISE POPS FOR SE TN AND PLATEAU GROUPS AND
LOWER SLIGHTLY FOR NE TN AND SW VA...HOWEVER CURRENT POP GRIDS MESH
WELL WITH NEIGHBORING SITES OF THE EASTERN CLUSTER.  WILL WATCH
RADAR TRENDS FOR A BIT LONGER...AND THEN DECIDE ON AN UPDATE OR NOT.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THE CURRENT HWOMRX ADVERTISES THIS POTENTIAL QUITE
WELL.

TG

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-110000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1215 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...
THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING.  STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
NEAR THE SURFACE WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAJOR
THREAT BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

STAY TUNED OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-110600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
205 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2002

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE INCLUDING THREAT FOR TORNADOS
AND/OR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND
MIDWEST TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE MID SOUTH. A SQUALL LINE CONTAINING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND WILL DRIVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES EAST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO EAST
TENNESSEE THIS EVENING. THE STORMS WILL HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS MOST
OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS WHICH MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TORNADOS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO...TELEVISION...OR
CABLE TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION.