Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 PM EDT WED SEP 4 2002

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
*********************************************************************
EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
845 PM EDT WED SEP 4 2002

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE KY/TN AND
VA/TN STATELINE. SHARP SURFACE MOISTURE GRADIENT IS EVIDENT WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS KENTUCKY.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CONVECTION
HAS DISSIPATED.

WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND REMOVE
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WORDING.  DUE TO DRY AIR ADVECTION...FEEL
ANY FOG WILL BE LIMITED.  CURRENT FORECAST LOWS LOOK GOOD.

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

DH
*********************************************************************
AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
220 PM EDT WED SEP 4 2002

MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SO
FAR ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY OVER NE TIP OF TN.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN VERY WEAK OR NON-EXISTANT...
PLUS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  THUS...DECIDED TO ONLY CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE EVENING POPS FOR MTN ZONES...FOR CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
ZONES AND TO BLEND WITH ADJACENT OFFICES.

NICE DEWPOINT DROPS NOTED OVER NRN HALF OF KY AND EXPECT THIS AIR TO WORK
SOUTH TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...FELT THAT FWCS 63 FOR CHA WAS TOO COOL TONIGHT
...ALTHOUGH 50 TO 55 LOOKED GOOD FOR NRN ZONES.  DRY AIR TOMORROW
BUT NOT REALLY MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND OVERALL
MOS HIGHS LOOKED REASONABLE BOTH DAYS.  MINS SHOULD BE ABOUT 1
CATEGORY COOLER FOR SECOND NIGHT...AS REFLECTED BY SIMILAR MOS
NUMBERS.

OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.  MY
PRELIMINARY TEMPS AND POPS FOLLOW FOR COORDINATION:

CHA  66/93/64/92/66  10/0/0/0/0
TYS  64/89/61/89/64  10/0/0/0/0
TRI  56/86/53/87/56  10/0/0/0/0
OQT  63/89/61/90/64  10/0/0/0/0

TG
*********************************************************************
MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
1002 AM EDT WED SEP 4 2002

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK THIS MORNING AS CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH.  DO NOT EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...BUT ENOUGH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TO
JUSTIFY LOW POPS AS FRONT WORKS SOUTH TODAY.  MAX TEMP FORECAST IS
CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAYS HIGHS...SO DO NOT PLAN ON A MORNING
UPDATE.

TG
*********************************************************************
EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
300 AM EDT WED SEP 4 2002

LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST. DOMINATE FEATURE REMAINS UPPER
RIDGING WITH RELATIVELY DRY LAYER FEEDING IN FROM THE WEST.

VERY WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TODAY. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK OMEGA WILL TRY TO EECK OUT
ISOLATED-WDLY SCT CONVECTION MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON
CURRENT CONDITIONS MODELS APPEAR TOO FAST WITH SOUTHERN PROGRESSION
OF FRONT. FOR THIS REASON WILL LINGER POPS INTO EVENING MNT GROUPS
AND ALSO LEAN TOWARD OR EXCEED UPPER MOS VALUES FOR TODAYS MAXS.
POST FRONTAL DPS AND 04/00Z MODEL RUN LEND TOWARD COOLER SOLUTION
FOR MIN TEMPS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL GO THAT WAY. ITS A RARITY
WHEN NGM NUMBERS ARE COOLEST FOR THESE PARTS. OVERALL DRYNESS AND
GOOD SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO CLIMB NICELY. EDOUARD
NOW PROGGED TO TRACK WEST. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MOISTURE RUNNING
UP OVER RIDGE AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW SW NC
TO SQUEEZE OUT A SHOWER BY THE WEEKEND. WILL DOWNPLAY THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR NOW.

CHA BA 094/065 091/063 088 17210
TYS BA 093/063 089/061 087 17210
TRI BA 090/055 085/054 085 17210
OQT BA 093/063 090/059 087 17210

SON
*********************************************************************