Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2002

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

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AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
330 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2002

A WEAK WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THIS EVENING. COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERAUTRES HAVE COMBINED TO DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS WITH LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN -5 AND -8.  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DUE TO THE
DRY MID-LEVEL INTRUSION AND INVERTED-V SIGNATURE OF THE SOUNDING...
LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.  ALSO...WBZ ARE
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAYS AND LOW ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL THIS EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOUNTAINS AND SLIGHT POP
FOR VALLEY THIS EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY...WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH
CONTINUED MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. GIVEN EXPECTED SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT
OF STORMS...WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHWEST VA/NORTHEAST TN FOR
TOMORROW.  ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY DRY...EXCEPT ISOLATED TRW IN THE
MTNS.

FOR SUNDAY...AVN IS LONE MODEL OUT IN BEING AGGRESSIVE IN PULLING GULF
MOISTURE BACK NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THE ETA/NGM ARE
NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE.  WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE ETA/NGM
SOLUTION AND ONLY CALL FOR SLIGHT POPS FOR MOUNTAIN AREAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...HOT...HAZY AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

FCSTID =
CHA   71  95  70  94 /  20  10  10  10
TYS   70  94  70  93 /  20  10  10  10
TRI   65  91  64  91 /  20  30  30  10
OQT   70  93  70  92 /  20  10  10  10

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

DH

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MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
945 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2002

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESURE ALOFT REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WITH FORECAST AREA ON THE EAST EDGE OF THE RIDGE.  NORTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT EXIST WITH THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING INDICATING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN YESTERDAYS.  AGAIN...AIRMASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH FORECAST CAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG WITH LIFTED
INDICES DROPPING TO -5 TO -8 LATER TODAY.  HOWEVER...ONLY LIFTING
MECHANISM IS LOCAL TERRAIN FEATURES.

GIVEN COLDER TEMPERAURES ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FORECAST OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS.  MAY
NEED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO
BRISTOL AREA LATE YESTERDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.

MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AS MID-LEVEL DRYING AND INVERTED-V SIGNATURE
REMAINS.  ALSO...WBZ ARE A LITTLE LOWER TODAY SO MARGINAL SEVERE
HAIL A POTENTIAL AS WELL.

DH

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EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
330 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2002

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BUT NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND IT WILL KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS TODAY FOR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON
MESOETA PROGGED SOUNDING WAS 1.5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH CAPES AT 1500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH WITH HEATING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST AROUND UPPER
LEVEL HIGH JUST LIKE YESTERDAY. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TOO.
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DROPS OFF SATURDAY SO WILL LEAVE DRY FOR
NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOUT THE SAME WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWS MID 60S NORTH VALLEY TO LOWER 70S
SOUTH.

FCSTID = 9
CHA   96  71  95  71 /   10  10  10  10
TYS   94  70  93  70 /   10  10  10  10
TRI   92  65  91  65 /   10  10  10  10
OQT   94  71  94  71 /   10  10  10  10

TD
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EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION
930 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2002

CANT SEEM TO HAVE AN EVENING WITHOUT A STORM OR TWO...AND HAVE SEEN
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP.  INTENSE AFTERNOON HEATING...
TERRAIN AND SOME SMALL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE LED TO SEVERAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS SINCE MID EVENING.  HAVE BEEN BUSY WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...WHICH HAS BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WHERE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR THE EVENING HOURS.  DOWNED TREES AND
QUARTER SIZED HAIL HAVE OCCURRED BENEATH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

I WILL LOOK THINGS OVER AND UPDATE ZONES...ONCE THE REMAINING STORMS
DISSIPATE...AND MAY NEED TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO ZONE GROUPS WHERE
CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED.

TG
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AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
250 PM EDT THU AUG 1 2002

LARGE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS PRODUCING TYPICAL
HOT...HAZY AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EARLY AUGUST.  ONLY LIFTING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WITH BE LOCAL TERRAIN FEATURES...SO
WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
FOR FRIDAY.

ISOLATED STORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY...BUT LIMITED
COVERAGE EXPECTED...SO WILL KEEP AREA DRY FOR SATURDAY.

WILL TREND HIGHS TOWARD THE HOTTER MOS VALUES

FCSTID =
CHA   71  95  71  94 /   0  10  10  10
TYS   70  94  70  94 /   0  10  10  10
TRI   64  91  65  91 /   0  10  10  10
OQT   68  94  68  94 /   0  10  10  10

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN, TN
159 PM EDT FRI AUG 2 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0945 PM    DAMASCUS                  VA   WIND DAMAGE
08/01/02   WASHINGTON                     NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

DAE