Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
347 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
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MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002

SFC FRONT LIES JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER MOVING STEADILY SOUTH TOWARD
CWA. EXPECTED TO REACH KY-TN LINE BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z TODAY. FRONTAL
ZONE IS A LITTLE DIFFUSE AND WILL MAINLY PUSH A FEW ISOBARS AROUND.
WILL ACT AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL FOCUS AS IT SAUNTERS OUT OF THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT...MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IS
SOLAR.  WINDS SHIFT WEAKLY TO NORTHERLY AS FRONT MOVES BY. AMS
REMAINS VERY MUGGY SO CHANCES FAIRLY GOOD FOR THUNDERSTORM. NEARLY
MENTIONED POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINS IN THUNDERSTORMS BUT IT SEEMED
REDUNDANT. STILL...HAVE ISSUED SOME FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS WITH SUCH
STORMS OVER LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. WHERE IT DOES RAIN...IT WILL
LIKELY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY.

BUMPED HIGH TEMPS UP OVR AVN MOS A LITTLE PER CONSISTANCY AND
PERSISTANCE. KEPT LOWS DOWN A BIT UNDER AVN AS BELIEVE ONLY THING
THAT WOULD KEEP THEM AS WARM AS THE AVN SAYS WOULD BE DENSE CLOUDS
AND THEY WONT BE THAT DENSE AS FRONT MOVES ON.

PRELIMINARY CCF FOLLOWS:

CHA WT 093/072 089/072 088 13545
TYS WT 091/070 088/069 085 13545
TRI WT 088/067 086/066 082 13545
OQT WT 090/069 087/068 085 13545

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

BB
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EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
945 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002

RADAR SHOWING MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING OR MOVING OUT OF
AREA EXCEPT FOR SOME PERSISTENT ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLATEAU.  WILL
DO A LATE UPDATE TO SEE IF IT DISSIPATES AS IT SHOULD.  IF NOT...MAY
KEEP A 20 POP FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT ON THE PLATEAU.  WILL ALSO ADD
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE RAINFALL TODAY.  TEMPERATURES
LOOK GOOD.

GH

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AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
320 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002

AREA RADARS SHOWING SCATTERED ECHOES IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...
AND THE VALLEY LOCATIONS TO THE EAST ARE HEATING UP APPRECIABLY.
CAPES IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ARE IN THE MODERATE RANGE...AND
EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
NORTHWEST...INTO VALLEY LOCALS. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...SO WILL WORD POP WITH
AN EVENING SCATTERED POP.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...WITH BETTER UPPER AIR TROUGHING. PERHAPS MORE THAN
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE LOOKS TO INVADE THE NORTHWEST
FORECAST AREA...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY AFTERNOON POP/S HERE.
ELSEWHERE...THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON POP SCENARIO CONTINUES (THOUGH UP
TO 50 PERCENT). MOS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE AND REASONABLE...MAINLY
LOWER 90S CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY LOCALS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES AND PROXIMITY OF FRONT
IS ENOUGH FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...AND SCATTERED POP/S DURING THE
PERIOD. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE WILL BE ADVERTISED ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

ON THURSDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HANG UP IN THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE LONG-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. SO...
WILL PLAY THIS SCENARIO FOR NOW...AND GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY AND A 30
POP.

DM
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MIDDAY FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
1040 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2002

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS
THE 24-HR MOISTURE PROFILE HAS CHANGED LITTLE. HOWEVER...L/L MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE A LITTLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND DESTABILIZATION
IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA (CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ADJACENT TO THE SEQUATCHIE VALLEY).

THEREAFTER...SCATTERED MOUNTAIN T-STORMS WILL BE ADVERTISED...AND
SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE PLATEAU MAY GET INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
LATE.

NO FORECAST UPDATE PLANNED.

DM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN, TN
718 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0645 PM    1 E FRIENDSHIP            TN   WIND DAMAGE
07/23/02   SULLIVAN                       TREE FELL ONTO A CAR ON
                                          HIGHWAY 421. INJURIES OR
                                          FATALITIES UNKNOWN AT THIS
                                          TIME. DISPATCH ADVISED OF
                                          MUCH MORE DAMAGE ON, ALONG
                                          AND NEAR HIGHWAY 421 AND AT
                                          A CAMP BUT WERE TOO BUSY TO
                                          ELABORATE. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

FEF