Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Morristown, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMRX 180148
FFSMRX
VAC191-180245-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
947 PM EDT WED APR 17 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 1045 PM 
EDT...

AT 945 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WASHINGTON 
COUNTY...MAINLY AROUND HOLSTON AND LINDELL...OR NORTH AND EAST OF 
ABINGDON. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING 
IN INTENSITY...BUT RUNOFF FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE 
TO PRODUCE A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED THAT TWO TO 
FOUR INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS NEAR LINDELL 
AND HOLSTON. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 
HOUR.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

$$

LAT...LON 3679 8215 3667 8201 3669 8167 3692 8183

DMG

000 
WGUS74 KMRX 180248
FFSMRX
VAC191-180300-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 PM EDT WED APR 17 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE AT 1045 PM EDT...

AT 1043 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON 
COUNTY...BUT THIS RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 
THE NEXT HOUR. THUS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY 
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. 

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. 
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

$$

LAT...LON 3679 8215 3667 8201 3669 8167 3692 8183

DMG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
313 PM EDT WED APR 17 2002

APPROACHING MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER STILL SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF
CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES INTO WRN TN.  AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AS TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.  MOST
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ALONG SE PARTS OF PLATEAU...AND ALSO ACROSS
WRN NC MTNS.  GIVEN THIS INSTABILITY PLUS SHORTWAVE/VORT CENTER...
WILL GO WELL ABOVE THE MOS POPS FOR TONIGHT.  CONVECTION SHOULD LAST
BEYOND THE EVENING HOURS...BUT VERY WEAK WINDS ALOFT SHOULD HINDER
SEVERE DEVELOPMENT.

SHOULD SEE LESS CONVECTION FOR TOMORROW...SO I TRENDED POPS TOWARD
THE DRIER NGM MOS.  JUST SLIGHT CHANCE MOST AREAS...EXCEPT MTNS
WHERE 30% POPS WERE CARRIED OVER FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH
AFTERNOON WORDING.  DRY THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  MAIN TRIGGER WOULD
APPEAR TO BE THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT.

OTHERWISE...MOS TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MOST PERIODS...AND
ACTUALLY SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENCE FORECAST GIVEN THE SUMMER LIKE
PATTERN.  STUCK CLOSE TO MOS POPS FOR PERIODS OTHER THAN TONIGHT.

ISC GRIDS ALREADY SENT...AND MY PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS FOLLOW:

CHA  63/85/61/84/62  30/20/5/20/30
TYS  63/83/60/82/60  40/20/5/30/40
TRI  59/83/57/80/58  50/20/5/40/50
OQT  62/83/60/82/60  40/20/5/30/40

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

TG