Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Marquette, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
410 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2002

...FORECAST QUANDARY IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
TONIGHT ACROSS CWA...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10PM EDT FOR GOGEBIC...
ONTONAGON...HOUGHTON...BARAGA...MARQUETTE...DICKINSON...AND
MENOMINEE COUNTIES...

CURRENTLY...SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NORTHERN
QUEBEC APPROACHING CWA. RIDGE OUT WEST HAS GREAT LAKES REGION UNDER
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 500MB. STRONG CAP OVER NORTHERN WI HAS
DIRECTED CONVECTION TO FAR WESTERN EDGE OF CWA. HOWEVER...SURFACE
LOW OVER WESTERN QUEBEC WITH FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH MN INTO
CENTRAL PLAINS...WILL HELP BREAK THAT AND BEGIN TO INITIATE
CONVECTION ACROSS CWA EARLY THIS EVENING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER
WESTERN CWA ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH TEMPS IN THE
80S...AND GREATEST MSAS 3HR PRESSURE CHANGE IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN
PORTION OF CWA.

ETA AND AVN INITIALIZED HGHTS AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WELL...BUT ETA
DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON 500MB AND 850MB TEMPS...AND
850MB DEWPOINTS. AVN MATCHES TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BETTER SUGGESTING
WARM AIR IS FURTHER NORTH-NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLOODING EXISTS BUT
MODELS DIFFER IN LOCATIONS OF QPF OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT EDGE OF
FRONTOGENESIS SUGGESTS THAT SOUTH AND EASTERN ZONES WILL SEE BRUNT
OF RAINFALL. NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AT 850MB...850-700MB
CONVERGENCE...850MB DEWPOINTS...AND LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
FROM AVN ARE ALSO HIGHEST IN THIS REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
OF 2 TO 2.5 INCHES FROM ETA AND AVN ALSO PEAK IN THIS AREA. KMPX
SOUNDING FROM 12Z HAD 1.93 INCHES. QPF AMOUNTS FROM ETA AND AVN SHOW
ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES MAY FALL OVERNIGHT WITH THE AVN MORE AGGRESSIVE
AND MORE NORTHERLY IN PLACEMENT. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70 AGAIN.

500MB VORT MAX PASSES OVER CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW AND
BOTH ETA AND AVN SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRYING BEHIND FRONT FOR WEST AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF CWA BY 12Z MONDAY...AND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS BY
15Z. WITH THE PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE BELOW 850MB BEHIND COLD
FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME CU
TO DEVELOP...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW
70S INLAND...WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE.

RIDGE OVER WESTERN CONUS STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOW 70S...WITH THE COOLER TEMPS AGAIN NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORE UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE UNDER A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL FOLLOW INTO WEEKEND AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.

MRF SHOWS MORE MOISTURE WITH SHORTWAVES ON FRIDAY AND WILL INTRODUCE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT DAY. WARM FRONT BECOMES STALLED NEAR
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN LAYER RH EXISTS FOR SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE
IN NCEP ENSEMBLES MAKE IT HARD TO DETERMINE IF SUNDAY WILL BE DRY OR
NOT. GIVEN UPPER AIR PATTERN DO NOT FIND IT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO
RUN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

COORD WITH APX AND GRB...THANKS.

.MQT...NONE.

LAROSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
639 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0545 PM    REPUBLIC                  MI   2.00 INCH HAIL
07/21/02   MARQUETTE

0600 PM    9 SW ISHPEMING            MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   MARQUETTE                      1-2 FT DIAMETER TREES DOWN

0600 PM    2 E CRYSTAL FALLS         MI   .75 INCH HAIL
07/21/02   IRON

0620 PM    5 E SAWYER AIRPORT        MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   MARQUETTE                      1-2 FT DIAMETER DOWN

0620 PM    10 S MARQUETTE            MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   MARQUETTE                      60 FT TALL TREE DOWN POWER
                                          LIINES DOWN

0630 PM    7 E IRON MOUNTAIN         MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   DICKINSON                      2 FT DIAMETER TREE DOWN

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
645 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0545 PM    REPUBLIC                  MI   2.00 INCH HAIL
07/21/02   MARQUETTE

0600 PM    9 SW ISHPEMING            MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   MARQUETTE                      1-2 FT DIAMETER TREES DOWN

0600 PM    2 E CRYSTAL FALLS         MI   .75 INCH HAIL
07/21/02   IRON

0620 PM    5 E SAWYER AIRPORT        MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   MARQUETTE                      1-2 FT DIAMETER DOWN

0620 PM    10 S MARQUETTE            MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   MARQUETTE                      60 FT TALL TREE DOWN POWER
                                          LIINES DOWN

0630 PM    7 E IRON MOUNTAIN         MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   DICKINSON                      2 FT DIAMETER TREE DOWN

0615 PM    ALFA                      MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   IRON                           NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
648 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0545 PM    REPUBLIC                  MI   2.00 INCH HAIL
07/21/02   MARQUETTE

0600 PM    9 SW ISHPEMING            MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   MARQUETTE                      1-2 FT DIAMETER TREES DOWN

0600 PM    2 E CRYSTAL FALLS         MI   .75 INCH HAIL
07/21/02   IRON

0620 PM    5 E SAWYER AIRPORT        MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   MARQUETTE                      1-2 FT DIAMETER DOWN

0620 PM    10 S MARQUETTE            MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   MARQUETTE                      60 FT TALL TREE DOWN POWER
                                          LIINES DOWN

0630 PM    7 E IRON MOUNTAIN         MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   DICKINSON                      2 FT DIAMETER TREE DOWN

0615 PM    ALFA                      MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   IRON                           NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

CVKING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
724 PM EDT SUN JUL 21 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0640 PM    7 S MARQUETTE             MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   MARQUETTE                      MICROBURST 1-2 FT DIAMETER
                                          TREES DOWN

0700 PM    AU TRAIN                  MI   TORNADO
07/21/02   ALGER                          WATERSPOUT

0709 PM    5 N SHINGLETON            MI   TORNADO
07/21/02   SCHOOLCRAFT                    FUNNEL CLOUD

0750 PM    3 W ROCK                  MI   WIND DAMAGE
07/21/02   DELTA                          1-3 INCH BRANCHES DOWN

0715 PM    1 N MARQUETTE             MI   FLOOD
07/21/02   MARQUETTE                      TOURIST PARK MINOR
                                          FLOODING...WATER 3-5 INCHES
                                          DEEP COVERING ROAD

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