Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Marquette, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
455 PM EDT THU APR 18 2002

RAIN AND SVR CHANCES THIS EVENING...THEN EXTENT OF COOLING AND POSSIBLE LK
EFFECT PRECIP FRI NGT/SAT ARE FOCUSES.

WARM FRONT SURGING AS FAR NORTH AS IRON COUNTY WITH STABLE NE FLW
OFF LK SUPERIOR JUST TO EAST OVR FAR WRN GOGEBIC INTO NW WI. SFC
DWPTS JUST SOUTH OF WARM FRONT SURGING ABOVE 60F. MAIN COLD FRONT
STILL OFF TO WEST ENTERING ERN MN...WITH ARX/GRB/DLH/MQT RADARS
SHOWING CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMING IN WARM SECTOR...BREAKING
STRONG MID LEVEL CAP. MAIN SHRTWV ENERGY SLIDING WELL TO NORTHWEST
OVR DAKOTAS...WITH SWATH OF LGT SNOW.

UNTIL COLD FRONT PASSES...THREAT FOR TS AND HVY SHRA PERSISTS
ESPECIALLY OVR SCNTRL ZONES AS H85 JET INTERACTS WITH HIGHER LAPSE
RATES ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT. MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING IS
SUPERCELLS WITH POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. K
INDEX ABOVE 35 AND H85 DWPTS ABOVE 10C SUPPORTS HEAVIER RAINS WITH
HEAVIEST TS...SO WL MENTION HVY RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WARNINGS
FOR GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON...WITH MAJORITY OF RAINFALL ALREADY OCCURRING
AND ANY RAINFALL TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ALTHOUGH WITH LATEST
DEVELOPMENT OF TS THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVR FAR ERN
GOGEBIC COUNTY THIS EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED FLOOD WATCH FOR SRN
COUNTIES...AS DEFINED BLO...BUT HAVE DECLINED TO KEEP IT GOING OVR
ALGER/LUCE COUNTIES AS HEAVIEST RAINS FM TONIGHTS SHRA/TS SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY TO SOUTH.

AFT FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT...COOLER AND DRIER CONDS LOOK TO
DOMINATE THROUGH NEXT FEW DAYS. ETA/AVN SHOWING SHRTWV SLIDING
THROUGH SAT...BUT LACKING DEEPER MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
SO WL LEAVE FCST DRY ATTM. HAVE SET SAT FOR COOLEST DAY...BUT STILL
WITH SOME MIXING TEMPS INTO 40S LOOK REASONABLE...ABOVE GUIDANCE.
ALTHOUGH THERMAL TROUGH MAKES IT FEASIBLE FOR LES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT
(DLT T/S AS HIGH AS 13C)...THINK LACK OF H100-H85 MOISTURE WL
PROHIBIT SIG LK EFFECT ACTIVITY.

EXTENDED...COOLER INITIALLY AS MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS NCNTRL
CONUS BUT TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND TO NORMAL-SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES DELAYED TIL TUE-WED WITH COOLER TEMPS
AGAIN THU WITH POSSIBLE RAIN OR SNOW.

.MQT...FLOOD WRNG TONIGHT MIZ002-009.
       FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT MIZ011>014.
       SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVY MIZ003>005-010.
       GALE WRNG E HALF LK SUPERIOR.

JLA

MIZ001>007-009>014-190400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1232 PM EDT THU APR 18 2002

...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE STORMS IN DICKINSON...MENOMINEE
AND DELTA COUNTIES MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM THE PLAINS AND THE WARM
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALOFT AND COOLER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE HAS ENDED
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. THE
GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHEN THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND AN AXIS OF
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERSECT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN. AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM IRON MOUNTAIN TO LA BRANCHE AND
RAPID RIVER HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT OF HAIL THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OR LARGER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THAT
WILL FURTHER SATURATE ALREADY SOGGY GROUND AND CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN BY MIDNIGHT EST AND END
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR
THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION DIRECT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MARQUETTE.

KC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
458 PM EDT THU APR 18 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0410 PM    CEDAR RIVER               MI   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/18/02   MENOMINEE

TRH