Special Marine Warning 99, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
130 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2002

MCS STILL STILL KEPT TOGETHER PRETTY WELL ALL DAY WHICH WILL AFFECT
POPS TOINGHT AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT FOG. WET MICROBURST RISK FROM JAN
SDG UPGRADED TO CHC RISK. EARLIER RUC 40 MODEL DERIVED GAVE SLIGHT
RISK BUT AS FAR AS FORECASTING POPS AND TIMING THEREOF...IT DID WELL
IN THE SHORT TERM THIS LATEST OF A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES KICKING UP
REGIONAL OUTFLOW ARCS BRINGING TSTM ACTIVITY FROM N TX THRU SRN LA
THRU ERN MS AND FROM THERE THRU WRN FL PANHANDLE AND INTO SE GA. IT
APPEARS OUR ARC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP THRU SOUTH ALABAMA...
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A SECOND JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL RENDER A CUTOFF
LOW OVER OH VALLEY TONIGHT. QG FRONTOGENETIC FUNCTION AND Q-VECTOR
DIVG VALUES ALIGNING WITH MDT/STG VORTICITY ABT 20E-5 S(-1) WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES AT 500. THIS WILL ADVECT INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW AND PUSH A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA
LATE MON. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL DOUSE RAIN CHANCES AS OF MON. FOR THE
FORECAST...WILL GO WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT MOST AREAS
WITH MONDAY HAVING A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EASTERN AREAS...ISOLD TO
NONE WEST...THRU TUESDAY QND STAYAING THAT WAY THRU MOST OF THE WEEK.

THE MRF STILL SHOWS POSSIBILITY OF A TROUGH IN STATE OF YUCATAN BY
THIS WEEKEND. WILL STAND FAST FOR NOW...NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED AT
THIS TIME.

FIRE...SEE LITTLE PROBLEM INTO MONDAY...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND PREVALENT. THEREAFTER...DRIER AIRMASS WILL PUSH
INTO AREA...WITH RH LEVELS FALLING INTO THE 35 TO 40% RANGE OVER
MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NO WIND PROBLEMS SEEN ATTM...WE
MAY SEE SOME PROBLEMS WITH HUMIDITY LATE THIS WEEK...WILL KEEP ALL
ADVISED.

MARINE...COASTAL WATERS WILL BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS SWITCHING TO NORTHWESTERLY. GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH WINDS/SEAS WEAKENING.

77/16

MOB BE 076/089 075/088 072 77521
PNS BE 076/090 076/089 072 77521
DTS EE 075/089 075/089 071 77521
GZH EE 072/091 073/089 069 77421
2R0 EB 073/091 071/089 067 77321
61A EB 073/088 072/088 068 77421=
.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-260300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...AMENDED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CDT SUN AUG 25 2002

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TODAY
WILL BRING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REGION BEGINNING
SHORTLY BEFORE NOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FIRST CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA AROUND NOON. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF BRINGING SEVERE
WEATHER TO OTHER PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ARE CURRENTLY
REVIEWING THE SITUATION FOR POSSIBLY ISSUING A WATCH THIS AFTERNOON.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR IN
THIS ANTICIPATED EPISODE OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY PERSONNEL AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED
THROUGH TODAY.