Special Marine Warning 77, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
310 AM CDT SUN JUL 28 2002

PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO REMAIN A FAIRLY GOOD FORECAST AS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN HAS SEEN ONLY MINOR CHANGES.  SFC/MIDLEVEL HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH SFC TO 700 MB MOISTURE IN
PLACE TO FUEL MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION.  SOUNDINGS LOOK TO HAVE
DRIED A SLIGHT BIT IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT STILL SEEING PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES.  ISOLATED NOCTURNAL SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COASTAL WILL DEVELOP INLAND AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY.  MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISMS WILL BE
REMNANT MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES...SEABREEZE/BAYBREEZE ETC.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS/WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS OVER THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS.

ON THE LARGER PICTURE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWING A DECENT
MIDLEVEL LOW NOW APPROACHING THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA.  AVN
INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE...AND MAINTAINS CONSISTENCY OF PAST SEVERAL
RUNS BRINGING THIS UPPER SYSTEM NORTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
INTO OUR REGION BY TUE.  ETA ALSO INITIALIZED THE MID/UPPER
LOW...BUT TENDS TO WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF.
BOTH MODELS DO NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE REFLECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM.  CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINING AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH MIDWEEK STILL LOOKS GOOD.

/05

...PRELIM CCF...
MOB 090/075 090/075 090 05525
PNS 090/077 089/077 089 05525
DTS 090/082 089/081 089 05525
GZH 092/072 092/072 092 05525
2R0 092/072 092/072 092 05425
61A 092/072 092/072 092 05425

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

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