Special Marine Warning 73, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
243 AM CDT FRI JUL 26 2002

CWA BEING DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL TROF AND DEFORMATION FIELD...
KEEPING POPS UP THROUGH TODAY. SOUNDING FROM JAN AND SIL SHOW DEEP
MOISTURE WITH PW NEAR 2 INCHES AND MEAN RH AROUND 70 THROUGH THE
SOUNDINGS AS FAR UP AS THE HYGRISTOR WOULD RENDER DEWPOINTS. BECAUSE
OF THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE THE ABILITY OF A MINOR VORTLOBE OR
EVEN A PASSING BUTTERFLY TO START NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS NOT TO BE
UNDERESTIMATED...AND RUMBLES IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ALONG THE
SEABREEZE IS MORE OR LESS A GIVEN. HENCE THE OVERNIGHT POPS WILL TAKE
CONSIDEABLE PONDERING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN MORE VIGOROUS
CONVECTION...PERHAPS 4 INCHES. WOULD NOT CONSIDER ANYTHING MUCH
HIGHER DUE TO ANTICIPATED LACK OF MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF TSTMS.

THERFORE WILL REMAIN WITH CONTINUITY FOR POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON
SATURDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE WEDGE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND 500
MB RIDGE BETTER ESTABLISHED WITH SHEAR PUSHED NORTH OF US HERE.
DECREASED POPS FCST PER PREVIOUS PRODUCTS WITH MINOR TWEAKS.  DEEP
RH NEEDED FOR EFFICIENT RAINMAKING SHUD JUST DROP OFF THE NEXT 24 TO
48 AND STAY DOWN. BELIEVE ETA POPS ARE WAY TOO HIGH. HIGHS TODAY ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO MAINLY BECAUSE OF RESIDUAL ANVIL CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERED THICKNESS VALUES. AS TROF LIFTS OUT AND HIGH NOSES IN...IT
SHOULD LOOK MORE LIKE THE DIURNAL SUMMER CYCLE AGAIN. HIGHS WILL WARM
SLIGHTLY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE RESULTING HYDROSTATICS AND SUNLIGHT.
TWO TIERED ZONE GROUPINGS SEEM TO BE A GOOD FCST STRUCTURE TO RETAIN.

EXTENDED...NO CHANGES NOTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WITH
TEMPERATURES NOR WITH SEABREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION.

MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE...HIGH TO BUILD INTO GULF THROUGH PERIOD...
WITH SOUTH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY...THEN LIGHT WESTERLY
BY TUESDAY WEAK SURFACE HIGH MOVES WEST ACROSS CENTRAL GULF.

FIRE...NO PROBLEMS NOTED. MDT TO HIGH RH. LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW
THRU SUNDAY WILL KEEP LOW TO MDT DISPERSION.

APPRECIATE WFO BMX COORD.

77/16

PRELIM NUMBERS...

MOB EB 089/074 090/074 091 77423
PNS EB 088/074 091/074 092 77323
DTS EE 086/077 089/077 090 77323
GZH EB 089/072 092/072 093 77523
2R0 EB 089/072 092/072 093 77523
61A EB 089/071 092/071 093 77523

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

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