Special Marine Warning 64, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
245 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2002

FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST...WE ARE GOING TO BE DEALING WITH SEVERAL
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED SHORTWAVES DANCING OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
THESE SHORTWAVES ARE LYING IN A MEAN TROUGH STRETCHING FROM OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO THE TX GULF
COAST. THIS TROUGH IS STILL HAVING A SHOVING MATCH WITH RIDGE OVER
THE GULF...THOUGH A DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING OVER THE
CA/US ROCKIES ON THIS MORNING. THIS WESTERN TROUGH IS HELPING TO
PUSH YESTERDAYS ROCKIES RIDGE TO OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
STATES/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN RESPONSE TO BETTER THAN
ANTICIPATED MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED OFF
THE MS/AL/NORTHWEST FL GULF COAST. PRECIP H20 LEVELS SOUTH OF I-20
ARE STILL PRETTY MOIST...WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 1.8 TO
2.0...BUT HAVE A BIT OF A DRY POOL DANCING AROUND NORTHERN
AL(SHOWING UP QUITE NICELY ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP).

ETA/AVN/NGM NOW ADVERTISING THESE SHORTWAVES DANCING AROUND OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH F48/TUESDAY MORN...BEFORE NORTHERN END OF
ROCKIES TROUGH SWINGS EAST AND PHASES WITH FLOW...DRAWING SOME OF
THE ENERGY EAST AS THE NORTHERN END CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. RESULT IS A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY
F72/WEDNESDAY MORN...GULF RIDGE SPLIT WITH RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALL MODELS ARE
KEEPING GOOD DYNAMICS OVER/NEAR THE FA...ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCATTERED
OVERNIGHT/LIKELY DAYTIME POPS IN EACH OF THEIR RESPECTIVE MOS. DO
SEE A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER DYNAMICS
WEAKEN A BIT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH. AM BASICALLY GOING TO
KEEP THE FORECAST PRETTY WET THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH BEST POPS
NEAR COAST. TEMPS...GOING WITH A NEAR OR BELOW CLIMO FORECAST...AS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP OUT SOME OF THE DAYTIME HEATING.

MARINE...GENERALLY WEST WINDS...SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY WILL
CONTINUE. WILL MENTION WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRE..NO HIGH LIGHTS. HUMIDITY REMAINS ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

EXTENDED...UPPER TROF TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA WEATHER...WILL
CONTINUE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
MOB 073/091 073/092 073 46352
PNS 075/091 074/092 074 46352
DTS 076/089 076/090 076 46352
GZH 069/092 069/093 070 46242
2R0 070/091 070/093 071 36242
61A 069/091 069/093 070 36242

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

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