Special Marine Warning 39, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 AM CDT FRI JUL 5 2002

MAIN SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE...WITH 700 MB CIRCULATION OVER
CNTRL GA THIS MORNING MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SWD TOWARD THE FL BIG
BEND.  WE DO NOTE A FEW MINOR RIPPLES UPSTREAM IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AND LATEST ETA/AVN PACKAGES ADVERTISING THESE WILL WORK
THEIR WAY THROUGH TODAY.  ALSO...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK W-E
ORIENTED TROF OVER CNTRL MS/AL.  THAT SFC FEATURE SHOULD NOT MOVE
MUCH TODAY...BUT IT MAY SAG A BIT FURTHER SWD TOMORROW.

AIRMASS OVER THE LAND AREAS STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THE EVENING
CONVECTION YESTERDAY...WITH ISOLD STORMS ALONG THE AL COAST THIS
MORNING.  WITH PW VALUES 1.7 TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES...LITTLE TO NO
CAP...AND SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE INTERIOR...WE SHOULD SEE MORE
SCT SHRA/TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY MOVING SWD TOWARD THE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON.  LESS COVERAGES OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES TODAY WITH
50 POPS ALONG THE COAST.  CURRENT FCST PARMS SEEM TO HAVE THIS
HANDLED FOR TODAY.  STORMS TODAY SHOULD AGAIN BE PROLIFIC LIGHTNING
PRODUCERS...AND WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS GIVEN SLOW
MOVEMENTS.

FOR TOMORROW...ETA/AVN PACKAGES IN FAIR AGREEMENT PUTTING MUCH OF
OUR AREA IN A BIT OF RIDGING ALOFT AS MID/UPPER HIGH BUILDS TO THE
NORTH.  WEAK SFC TROF SLOWLY MEANDERS ACROSS AREA PROVIDING SOME
FOCUS FOR SCT AFTN/EVE TSTMS (MAYBE LESS COVERAGE THAN WHAT WE WILL
SEE TODAY) WITH 1.6-2.0 INCH PW VALUES TO BE ACTED UPON.  OUR
THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED IN THAT THE ETA MAY BE A BIT BONKERS WITH
THE WARMING OVER THE INTERIOR...AND WILL TAILOR FORECAST CLOSER TO
OTHER SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO THAT.

/05

PRELIM CCF...
MOB TB 090/073 092/073 092 05523
PNS TB 089/074 090/074 091 05523
DTS TB 088/075 089/076 088 05523
GZH BB 091/070 094/071 093 05323
2RO BB 093/070 094/070 093 05323
61A BB 092/070 094/070 093 05323

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.