Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
240 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2002

FOR THE PACKAGE...BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE PRECIP...WITH THE ENDING
OF THE ONGOING PRECIP...AND A SHORTWAVE PASSING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. FIRST...TAKING A LOOK AT THE CURRENT SITUATION...THIS
MORNINGS UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PUT UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN WI...WITH
MEAN TROUGH STRETCHING INTO EASTERN MX. RIDGE OVER EASTERN THIRD OF
CONUS/CA IS GETTING SHARPENED BY LOW PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. TSRA ON-GOING OVER THE FA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE FA. AIRMASS MOIST AHEAD OF
FRONT...WITH PRECIP H20 VALUES OVER I-20 AND POINTS SOUTH 1.6+.
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS OUTFLOWS FROM CURRENT ACTIVITY GETTING
READY TO COLLIDE WITH GULF BREEZE FRONT HANGING CLOSE TO COAST.

MODELS ADVERTISING UPPER LOW OVER WI SWINGING EAST THROUGH F24/SAT
MORN...THEN HEAD NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SEND THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF...BEFORE IT STALLS. LOCAL EFFECTS THEN TAKE
OVER...WITH FRONT GETTING WASHED OUT/NORTH BY THE GULF BREEZE SAT.
THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN YESTERDAY. PRECIP LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY
DONE ACROSS THE AREA BY START TIME FOR THIS PACKAGE...BUT GOING TO
KEEP SOME POPS IN CLOSE TO COAST.  FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT
TERM...MODELS BRINGING IN DRIER AIRMASS ABOVE AND GULF BREEZE
INFLUENCE. MODEL THICKNESS VALUES DO NOT DROP ALL THAT MUCH...SO
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPS TO REMAIN GENERALLY THE SAME THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. DRY AIR WILL HELP WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING...SO OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL BE RATHER COMFORTABLE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO
THE TROUGH...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AM NOT GOING TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW UNTIL MORE MOISTURE
COMES BACK.

MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN
TAPER OFF THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL KEEP CAUTION STATEMENT FOR TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORN. EXPECT SOME GUSTINESS LATER SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS AREA.

FIRE...DRYING BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUED WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL REQUIRE WATCH FOR INLAND AREAS OF THE
PANHANDLE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ADVERTISING A DE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS AS SHORTWAVE LOW MOVES OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS. RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH. THE ONLY THING
CONSTANT IN THE MODELS...AND ENSEMBLES WHERE AVAILABLE...IS A WEAK
TROUGH BEING MAINTAINED SOMEWHERE OVER THE GULF. AM GOING TO
CONTINUE THE SEASONAL FORECAST UNTIL SOMETHING BETTER APPEARS TO
HANG MY FORECASTING HAT ON.

...PRELIM NUMBERS...
MOB 066/090 064/088 067 30012
PNS 070/089 067/088 069 40012
DTS 072/088 070/087 070 40012
GZH 063/090 060/089 064 10012
2R0 062/088 060/089 065 -0021
61A 063/088 061/089 065 -0011

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FLZ001-003-005 SAT AFTERNOON.
MS...NONE.

16

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-141900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1045 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2002

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND PROVIDE THE
SPARK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 55 MPH...
SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH OR LESS.
HOWEVER...SOME ISOLATED SPOTS COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES UNDER THE
SLOWER MOVING STRONGER STORMS.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...MAINLY DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO PUSH OFF THE COAST BY MID EVENING...WITH DRIER AND COOLER
CONDITIONS BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACHES OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON.  BEACH GOERS SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL BEACH
OFFICIALS AND AVOID AREAS WHERE RED FLAGS ARE POSTED.  BE SAFE AND
SWIM WHERE TRAINED LIFEGUARDS ARE ON DUTY.

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER OFFICIALS IN
SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB.