Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
255 PM CDT FRI JUN 28 2002

MAIN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. IS PUSHING EAST AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE REMNANT SOUTHERN END OF THE
TROUGH SHEARS OUT EAST-WEST OVER THE GULF STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS A RESULT. A WEAK CUTOFF LOW APPEARS ALREADY ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF. BETTER RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES AS THE WEAK TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL RANGING ONE AND HALF INCHES
AND UP BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING UP OVER THE
COASTAL SECTIONS. WILL LESSEN RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE FOR COASTAL
AREAS TOMORROW. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE TROUGH SAGS SOUTH A
LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ETA...AVIATION...AND CANADIAN MODELS EVEN DEPICT A WEAK SURFACE
REFLECTION OVER TEH CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY MORNING.

FOR LATER NEXT WEEK...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PATTERN. THE MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STAYS PUT...CUTTING OFF ANOTHER
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST. SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES WILL STILL BE THE MAIN INFLUENCES ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. GUIDANCE TEMPS STAY IN THE TYPICAL LOW 90S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EARLY ON. WILL KEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE FORECAST LATER THIS WEEKEND AS UPPER TROF
MOVES EAST OF FORECAST AREA AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

FCSTID = 13
MOB   72  90  72  90 /  20  30  20  40
PNS   74  90  74  89 /  10  30  20  40
DTS   73  89  73  89 /  10  30  20  50
GZH   70  91  70  89 /  20  40  30  50
2R0   70  89  71  90 /  40  50  30  40
61A   70  89  71  89 /  40  50  40  50

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.