Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
320 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2002

FOR THE CURRENT PACKAGE...LOOKS LIKE WE ARE TENDING BACK TO A CLIMO
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS AND POPS. MEAN TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL
PROVIDE SOME UPPER INSTABILITY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH UPPER
RIDGE OVER CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL HELP TO KEEP TAIL END ANCHORED. PRECIP H20 LEVELS ACROSS THE FA
WERE IN THE 1.6 (ALONG I-20) TO 2 RANGE  ALONG THE FL COAST (NEAR
TO 120% OF NORM FOR THE AREA).  MODELS KEEP LEVELS IN THIS RANGE
OVER THE FA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE WINDS
ALONG COAST AND OVER COASTAL WATERS. ETA/NGM/AVN ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH RESPECT TO SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
RIDGE....WITH CENTER OF CIRCULATION SOMETIMES OVER THE EASTERN
GULF...SOMETIMES CENTRAL...SOMETIMES WEST...WITH LITTLE SOME
AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...BUT NOT MUCH. MOS GUIDANCE FOR EACH
MODEL TEMPER THE DIFFERENCES A BIT...WITH LIGHT WINDS INLAND...
DRAINAGE WIND ALONG COAST...AT NIGHT...AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING
THE DAY. DURING THE DAY...MOS IS ADVERTISING GENERALLY WESTERLY
WINDS NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA...VARIABLE ALONG COAST BEFORE GULF
BREEZE KICKS IN. FOR THE HEAT PROBLEM WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE NEAT HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS WILL COOL A
BIT...WITH MAX DAYTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.

FOR THE FORECAST...AM BASICALLY TRENDING TOWARDS CLIMO THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. SEE LITTLE TO DIFFERENTIATE FROM SUCH AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER GULF WILL KEEP CIRCULATION CENTER OF
WINDS AROUND SURFACE HIGH DANCING AROUND THE GULF...PROVIDING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

FIRE..MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY REMAINS AROUND 40 PERCENT OVER THE
WEEKEND...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
AFTERNOONS.

EXTENDED...MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION TOWARD MID WEEK AS BASE
OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA...INTO
UPPER WEAKNESS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONSISTENTLY DRAPE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BASICALLY
GOING WITH CLIMO FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
MOB 075/095 073/094 072 14242
PNS 076/094 074/094 074 14242
DTS 077/094 076/093 075 14242
GZH 072/095 071/094 071 24131
2R0 072/094 071/094 072 24131
61A 073/095 072/095 072 24131

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

16/12