Special Marine Warning 73, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 21 2002

FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING PAST HOUR AHEAD OF BOUNDARY
SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN CWA AND NEAR SE COAST IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE. EXPECT CONTINUED SMALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. PLAN
TO OMIT 1ST PERIOD POPS OVER THE NORTH CWA...BUT LEAVE IN 20 PERCENT
OVER THE SOUTH FOR LINGERING EVENING ACTIVITY. BOUNDARY LAYER W/SW
FLOW AND CALM SURFACE WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG OVER N/C CWA
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT LOW ENOUGH VISIBILITIES FOR MENTION WITHIN ZFP.

VERTICAL MOISTURE PROFILES WILL REMAIN HIGH NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWS TO THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY LOSES IDENTITY.
ALTHOUGH SHALLOW BOUNDARY MAY REACH CWA TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING/DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY...THERMAL CONTRAST WILL BECOME
NEGLIGIBLE AND NE FLOW WILL BRIDGE THE FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AS PIECE
OF SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS E/SE OFF SE COAST.
WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...LAKE/BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL FORM
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER SMALL WATER/AIR TEMP DIFFERENTIAL SHOULD
LIMIT SIGNIFICANT COVERGENCE/LIFT. WILL INDICATE SMALL DIURNAL POPS
NEXT 2 DAYS OVER THE SOUTH WHERE MOISTURE AND MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE
SHOULD BE THE GREATEST. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TUE DUE
TO WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT FLOW. WED/THU...DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW
WILL MODERATE MAX TEMPS...BUT ELEVATE MINS ALONG ATLANTIC COAST.
SMALL COASTAL SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE RETAINED.

AS NEXT FRONT REACHES THE SE U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL DROP SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO SW/W FRI/SAT. ALSO APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN/SLOW N OF
CWA...WITH POSSIBILITY OF SHALLOW BOUNDARY/MOISTURE BAND SETTLING
INTO CWA SAT/SUN....LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
TAKES SHAPE OVER MID MS VALLEY. EXPECT LITTLE TEMP CHANGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH MAXS/MINS REMAINING ABOVE CLIMO. WILL NOT YET COMMIT
TO PRECIP DAYS 5-7 AS UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO INDICATE TROUGHING
OVER WESTERN U.S. AND HINTS YET AGAIN AT POSSIBILITY OF FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/PRECIP STALLING NORTH OF CWA.

DAB BB 067/086 068/082 069 65111
MCO BB 069/088 069/086 068 6511-
MLB BB 070/088 070/084 071 65211

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...SPRATT
AVIATION/FIRE WX...WIMMER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
212000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1118 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2002

.DAY ONE...

...CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIALLY
FORM AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
FROM THE NORTH. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...RESIDENTS ARE REMINDED THAT ALL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POTENTIAL KILLERS REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH LIGHTNING THEY PRODUCE.
MOVE INDOORS IF LIGHTNING IS SEEN OR IF THUNDER IS HEARD...AND
REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL 30 MINUTES PAST THE LAST RUMBLE OF THUNDER.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WEDNESDAY AS WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST...
REACHING 3 TO 5 FEET MAINLY IN A NORTHEAST SWELL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL BE EVEN HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM AS
WINDS OPPOSE THE OCEAN CURRENT. THE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO
BECOME GREATER THAN NORMAL LATER THIS WEEK AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE
AND SWELLS BEGIN TO IMPACT THE BEACHES.

TO VIEW THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SPRATT