Special Marine Warning 49, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
225 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002

CURRENT WEATHER...RADAR SHOWING SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED WEST OF I 95
FROM SOUTH BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH. THE SEA BREEZE HAS TRIGGERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG IT IN MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE AND SOUTHERN
INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ENTERING
SOUTH LAKE COUNTY...AND AROUND THE SPACE CENTER IN BREVARD COUNTY.
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWED CUMULUS FIELD BUILDING IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT...AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLIDING WITH THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAINLY BEYOND 20
MILES OF SHORE. OFFSHORE WEATHER BUOYS WERE RECORDING SOUTHEAST
WINDS 6 TO 8 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS.

DISCUSSION...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK THEN SLOWLY TRACK NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY
AND BE OVER NORTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT IS A TRANSITION
TO A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME BY SUNDAY. WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

MARINE...RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
NORTH OF COCOA BEACH AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST COCOA BEACH SOUTH.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL COME INTO PLAY EACH DAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS

DAB TT 071/089 072/089 072 464
MCO TT 072/091 072/091 073 464
MLB TT 074/089 074/089 075 453

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...WIMMER
AVIATION/FIRE WX...GITTINGER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
222100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1210 PM EDT MON JUL 22 2002

...NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS TODAY...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE...

THE WEATHER SETUP TODAY IS QUITE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
...THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NORTHERN PENINSULA...WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND...IT INITIALLY WILL TRIGGER
SHORT LIVED STORMS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. AS THE SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF LIGHTNING STORMS WILL
INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES
FROM OSCEOLA NORTH...AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE
WEST COAST AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES.

A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.... DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 57 MPH...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE MOST
INTENSE STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES MAY CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND TEMPORARY FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED
AND LOW LYING AREAS.

THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF FORT PIERCE
AND FORT DRUM...AND ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH ALONG COASTAL AREAS
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL MOVE WEST AT
10 MPH...AND PUSH BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTIES.

TO VIEW THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

WIMMER