Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2002

CURRENTLY...INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE HAS SURGED THE BOUNDARY INLAND NOW IN THE FORM OF CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW. STORMS ARE TRANSITIONING TO THE INTERIOR WITHIN A PRIMED
AIRMASS AND THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN INTO
THE EVENING AS UNCONTAMINATED AIRMASS EXISTS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH SLOW
MOVEMENT. WILL SEE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS AND WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE WITH TRENDING DOWNWARD LATE.

THIS WEEKEND...UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE REGION WITH A
LACK OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES. SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE EACH DAY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
EXTEND FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL POPS APPEAR TOO LOW GIVEN FORECAST REGIME.

EXTENDED...LITTLE CHANGE IN MEAN RIDGE AXIS POSITION THROUGH
MIDWEEK. SUMMER TIME PATTERN OTHERWISE WITH SUITABLE MOISTURE AND
SURFACE HEATING CREATING ENVIRONMENT FOR DIURNAL STORMS. RIDGE AXIS
SUPPRESSES SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE PENINSULA. WLY SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT. WILL SEE A DIURNAL INCREASE IN WIND
DUE TO SEA BREEZE ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST...OTHERWISE SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 3 FEET OF LESS THROUGH THE DURATION.

PRELIM...
DAB TT 069/087 070/089 070 4544
MCO TT 069/092 071/092 071 4544
MLB TT 071/087 071/088 072 3534

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...PENDERGRAST
AVIATION/FIRE WX...SPRATT

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
312100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 31 2002

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SEA AND LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
DUE TO WEAK STEERING WINDS THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING. BRIEF TORNADOES OR WATERSPOUTS MAY SPIN UP ALONG
THUNDERSTORM BOUNDARIES.

PERSONS PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD ALLOW TIME TO GET INDOORS
SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP OR MOVE TO THEIR AREA. LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY
OCCUR WELL IN ADVANCE OF ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION. STANDING
WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN WHEN DRIVING ON SLICK ROADS.

SKYWARN NET CONTROLS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE SHOULD A SEVERE
WEATHER WARNING BE ISSUED IN THEIR AREA.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

JP