Special Marine Warning 41, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 PM CDT MON JUL 8 2002

FCST FOCUS ON MORE LIMITED CHC FOR PCPN THIS EVENING...THEN COOLER
AND EXTENDED DRY PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

VERY POSITIVE TILT TO WEAK TROF THRU DEEP LAYER...PRODUCING
UNFAVORABLE WRLY FLOW AT MOST LEVELS.  LLV CONVERGENCE LIMITED AS SFC
LOW AND ASSOC CDFNT ARE WEAK.   ORIENTATION OF APPROACHING BNDRY ALSO
PRECLUDES GOOD LLV FORCING.  SOUNDINGS ARE WARM WHICH IS LIMITING
AVAILABLE CAPE. CAPES OFF THE NEW 12Z ETA PROG SOUNDINGS FOR MSN HAVE
NOW DROPPED BELOW 1000 FOR THIS AFTN.  TEMPS HAVE CLIMBED INTO
THE LO/MID 90S WITH DWPNTS LO/MID 70S. SFC BASED LI/S AT -8.
MODIFIED RUC40 SOUNDINGS GIVEN CURRENT NUMBERS SHOW CAPES OF
4000J/KG. AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH THREAT FOR STORMS
STILL REAL. ETA QPF ACTUALLY SHOWS QPF AMOUNTS DIMINISHING AFTER
18Z...PRODUCING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH AT MKE AND LESS THAN 1/2
INCH AT MSN FOR THE EVENT.

WL HANG ONTO CHCY POPS UNTIL BNDRY COMES THRU. LAST MINUTE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

DWPNTS SLOW TO SCOUR ON TUES...BUT DRY AIR TO EVENTUALLY MIX IN.
WED-FRI LOOKING AT OR BELOW NORMAL ON TEMPS. DWPNTS BACK TO MORE
COMFORTABLE LEVEL.  UNFORTUNATELY...MISSED OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL LEAD INTO
ANOTHER 5 DAYS OR SO OF DRY WEATHER.

GUID TEMPS LOOK GOOD...ESPECIALLY ETA MOS EARLY IN FCST RANGE.

.MKX...NONE.

DAVIS

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