Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CDT THU APR 18 2002

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CURRENT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...THEN ON RE-
DVLPT LATER TDA AHD OF APCHG CDFNT.

STG TSTMS CONT SPRDG RPDLY NEWD ACRS MAINLY WRN AND NRN WI. SOME OF
THESE CURRENTLY GRAZING NRN PTN CWA. WL MONITOR TRENDS UP TO
ISSUANCE TIME AND WORD ZNS ACCORDINGLY.

MOST OF CWA EVENTUALLY GETS INTO WM SECTOR TDA AFTER WMFNT LIFTS
UP INTO CNTRL WI. ALL PROGS THEN FOCUS ON NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION
AHD OF APCHG CDFNT. SO WILL BRING POPS IN AGN THIS AFTN INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. CWA STILL IN OUTLOOK AREA FM SPC SO WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SEVERE.  WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF RECORD OR NEAR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...THOUGH IT WILL TAKE SOME RAPID
CLEARING OF EXPECTED CLOUD DEBRIS FIELD FROM MORNING CONVECTION TO
REACH THESE NUMBERS.

VERY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CWA AFTER EXIT OF CDFNT. QUITE A
CHG AFTER RECENT RECORD HEAT.

.MKX...NONE.

NJ

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-181430-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
522 AM CDT THU APR 18 2002

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EMERGENCY PLANNERS...
...FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

THREAT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE MAIN
THREAT IS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OUT OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...AS THEY
TRAVERSE AREAS WELL NORTH OF MILWAUKEE AND MADISON...BUT MAY PRODUCE
SOME SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAINS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. THE WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR WILL FOLLOW AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP AND BECOME GUSTY. THE
CATALYST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL THEN BE AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ERUPT THIS AFTERNOON IN WESTERN WISCONSIN
AND IOWA AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING IN SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THEN MORE LIKELY THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST.

OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.