Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1120 AM CDT THU APR 18 2002

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING CDFNT.

LINE OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS JUST AHEAD OF NOSE OF LOW LEVEL
JET.  SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE AT THIS MOMENT...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE...SO THIS LINE MAY
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WI EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  CAPES
RISE TO OVER 2000 J/KG.  FLOW IS RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL NOW...BUT ANY
LAKE BREEZE FRONT WOULD PRODUCE MODERATE HELICITIES...AND EHI VALUES
TO NEAR 3...SO BOUNDAIES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. DEW POINTS
ALREADY IN LOWER 60S...WITH MID 60S ALREADY OVER N IL.

MAIN COLD FRONT DOES NOT COME THROUGH SE WI UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND MODELS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY PRODUCE
ANOTHER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.

VERY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER CWA AFTER EXIT OF CDFNT. QUITE A
CHG AFTER RECENT RECORD HEAT.

.MKX...NONE.

HENTZ

WIZ046-047-051-052-058>060-064>066-069>072-192231-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
430 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 110 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...

AT 430 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM MONTELLO
TO PORTAGE...TO MOUNT HOREB...TO MONROE. THE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE
EAST AT 35 MPH AND WILL AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
BY 530 PM CDT. THE STORMS WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AFTER 530
PM CDT. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING LARGE
HAIL.

GD

WIZ047-051-052-056-058>060-062>067-070>072-182315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
515 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 110 IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL 8 PM CDT...

AT 514 PM CDT...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE SEVERE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL. THE STRONG STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY
OF PRODUCING MARBLE SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

PERSONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SHOULD REMAIN
VIGILANT AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER SHOULD THREATENING
WEATHER APPROACH.

GD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
530 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0433 PM    MERRIMAC                  WI   1.75 INCH HAIL
04/18/02   SAUK                           REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0453 PM    ENDEAVOR                  WI   .75 INCH HAIL
04/18/02   MARQUETTE                      REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0510 PM    1 SW MADISON              WI   1 INCH HAIL
04/18/02   DANE                           REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
549 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0510 PM    MADISON                   WI   .75 INCH HAIL
04/18/02   DANE                           REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0529 PM    MADISON                   WI   .75 INCH HAIL
04/18/02   DANE                           REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0530 PM    MADISON                   WI   .88 INCH HAIL
04/18/02   DANE                           REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

0534 PM    BERLIN                    WI   .75 INCH HAIL
04/18/02   GREEN LAKE                     REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

0535 PM    MONONA                    WI   .75 INCH HAIL
04/18/02   DANE                           REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062-066>068-071-072-190115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
625 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
UNTIL 8 PM CDT...

AT 624 PM CDT...NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND A SMALL
PORTION OF
SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY
OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA MOVING EAST. THESE
STORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 8 PM CDT. THE STORMS
ARE MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

PERSONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

GD

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>059-062-065>067-070-071-190100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
735 PM CDT THU APR 18 2002

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
UNTIL 8 PM CDT...

AT 730 PM CDT...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER THE SOUTH
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. SOME OF THESE STORMS
HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN FROM
NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE STORMS WILL ENTER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
AFTER 830 PM CDT.

PERSONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK STURDY SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM
WINDOWS IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

GD