Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
220 AM EDT THU SEP 5 2002

SOME PRETTY DECENT STORMS ON RADAR ALONG VA/NC BORDER AND A FEW W OF
OUR CWA. EXPECT THESE TO MOVE INTO OUR CWA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
AT 05Z THE FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEAR WAL TO DAN TO AVL. BIG QUESTION
IS WILL FRONT MAKE IT THROUGH US BY 12Z AND MSAS 3HR PRES CHG WOULD
ARGUE AGAINST THAT OCCURRING SINCE THE CHG IS ONLY 1MB. BUT BOTH AVN
AND ETA ARE SIMILAR IN HAVING THE FRONT ACROSS THE S PART OF OUR CWA
BY 12Z. DO NOT THINK WE WILL NEED POPS FOR TODAY EXCEPT MAYBE S 1/2
OF CWA AND WILL ONLY GO 20% AND WORD IT AS MORNING IF NEED BE. WILL
MAKE THAT DECISION AT PRESS TIME.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH NVA MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND
EXPECT A GOOD BIT OF SUNSHINE TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY FOR INLAND AREAS. HERE AT MHX WE NORMALLY ARE
WARMER WITH A N WIND THAN ANYWHERE ELSE IN OUR CWA. SO FOLKS
HERE WONT SEE MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. HIGH PRES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD S-SE OVER VA BY 12Z SUN.
ONCE THIS FRONT GETS THROUGH THIS MORNING WE WILL HAVE NEXT TO NIL
CHC OF GETTING PCPN FOR THE NEXT WEEK. AFTER ALL THE RAIN WEVE HAD
THE LAST WEEK THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE WELCOME.

TEMPS...GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE FOR HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW. WILL
GO WITH COOLER MAV FOR MINS OVER INLAND AREAS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. MINS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO
FETCH COMING OVER WARM OCEAN WATER.

CWF...NO MJR CHANGES TO CRNT FCST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE BEHIND
FRONT TODAY AND CONT FROM NE THROUGH REMAINDER OF FCST AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS S ACRS NC. WL SEE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH SEAS AVG 3 FEET...WITH SOME RESIDUAL SWELL POSS
WL WORD 3 TO 4 FEET S OF HAT THROUGH FCST.

RIP CURRENT THREAT...

OTR BNKS...INCRSD THREAT WITH N/NE ONSHR WND OF 15 KT AND 2 FT
RESIDUAL E SWELL.

BOGUE BNKS...INCRESD THREAT....WND GOES OFFSHR SO THE SURF ZONE WL
CLEAN UP. THERE IS STILL A RESIDUAL 2.5 FT E SWELL. LCL SCHEMES PUT
THREAT AT LOW INCRSD.

.MHX...NONE.

WS/RF

NCZ103-050700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT-MOREHEAD CITY NC
201 AM EDT THU SEP 5 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT OUTER BANKS DARE COUNTY UNTIL 300
AM EDT...

AT 200 AM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER MANTEO
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTER OF THE PAMLICO SOUND...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS FROM OREGON
INLET SOUTH TO HATTERAS VILLIAGE THROUGH 3 AM.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE
STORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

RF

NCZ103-104-050800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT-MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 AM EDT THU SEP 5 2002

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT OUTER BANKS HYDE AND OUTER BANKS
DARE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM EDT...

AT 258 AM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 15 TO 30 MILES NORTH
OF BUXTON...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANTEO...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR RODANTHE AT 310 AM
EDT...SALVO AT 320 AM EDT...AVON AT 345 AM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE FRISCO...HATTERAS VILLAGE AND
OCRACOKE.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THESE
STORMS ARE PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

RF