Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
235 PM EDT SAT JUN 01 2002

...SCORCHER FOR SUNDAY...

EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL REMAIN IN A UPPER NWRLY FLOW THROUGH
ERLY NEXT WEEK. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL PASS SE ACROSS THE
REGION BUT PCPN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO A LACK OF SIG
MOISTURE. WE ARE CURRENTLY WATCHING DEEP CONVECTION MOVG SE OVER
WV/KY/VA. THE MODELS WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY CONSIDERABLY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER AIRMASS EAST OF THE MTS THIS EVENING. THERE
STILL COULD BE A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM ASSCTD WITH THE REMNANTS
SO LIKELY INCLUDE A SLGT CHC OVERNIGHT. A SFC TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SWITCH THE WINDS TO NW...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
HOT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL GIVE AN EXTRA
BOOST TO THE HEAT AND I EXPECT TEMPS TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S.
FWC/ETA AND LOCAL TEMP SCHEMES ALL POINTING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S IN THE NORMALLY HOT INLAND SITES. THE COAST WILL NOT BE SPARED
FROM THE HEAT AS THE SEA BREEZE IS LIKELY TO BE PINNED TO THE BEACH
BY THE NW WINDS. WILL FORECAST HIGHS 95-100 INALND...AND 94-98 JUST
INLAND FROM THE BEACHES. THE OUTER BANKS WILL REACH AT LEAST THE
UPPER 80S. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE HIGH...CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL
FOR A HEAT ADVY. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ACT TO DECREASE SFC
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S. USING A TEMP IN THE UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINT
IN THE UPPER 60S YIELDED A HI AROUND 105. WILL DECIDE ON THIS AFTER
HEARING FROM ADJACENT OFFICES. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THINK PCPN
CHANCES ARE ABOUT NIL WITH VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. COULD BE SLGT
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PASSES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. MODEL PROFILES INC AND THERE IS A WEAK DIST
ALOFT. MAY CARRY ISOLD OR SLGT CHANCE. A LITTLE COOLER WX ON TAP
MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NE. FRONT BEGINS TO
TRANSITION BACK TO THE N LATE AND COULD A TRIGGER A SHOWER OR STORM
BUT NOT MORE THAN A 20% CHANCE.

EFP: UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVR ESTRN NC TUE INTO WED WITH A
RETURN TO THE 90S...ESP TUE. WARM WX WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AVN BRINGS GULF OF
MEXICO UPPER LOW OUT MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN OPEN WAVE PERHAPS
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS. SYNOPTIC SCALE COOL FRONT WILL
REMAIN TO THE WEST AND N. WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CWF...WE ARE FAVORING THE ETA ON FRONTAL MOVEMENT SO BACKED OFF
WINDS SWITCHING TO AN E-NE UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL GO WITH 15-20
TONIGHT FROM THE SW BECOMING W AND DECREASING TO 10-15 OVER S
WATERS.  WINDS SHOULD GO SE LATE MON AS FRONT MAKES IT DOWN TO THE
SC COASTAL WATERS. IN THE EXTENDED EXPECT WINDS SE MON NIGHT
BECOMING S EARLY TUE MORNING THEN SW WED AND THU. SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA.

.MHX...NONE.

ELARDO/SHAFFER