Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CO FOR TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
200 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2002

SHORT TERM: TEMPERATURES RESPONDING TO DELAYED HEATING WITH READINGS
CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 90 AND BE
ABLE TO TAP INTO AVAILABLE INSTAB (CAPES 3000 J/KG LI -8). WATER
VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE IMMINENT PHASING OF THE NRN/SRN STREAMS AS
INDICATED BY NWP GUIDANCE. 15Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A NEW SFC LOW
FORMING OVER NRN KY WHICH WILL BECOME THE MAIN LOW. STRONG DIFL
ALOFT ASSCTD WITH THE PHASING STREAMS WILL AID SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT
AND MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW TO AROUND 995 MB BY 00Z. THIS IS FAIRLY
STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WILL CAUSE A BACKING AND
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW AND MID LVL WIND FIELDS. THESE CONDITIONS
FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. DOWNDRAFTS WILL ALSO
BE ENHANCED BY DRY AIR PARCELS ABOVE 600 MB. ALTHOUGH BEST TORNADO
THREAT EXISTS NORTH OF HERE...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH DISCRETE CELLS
EXHIBITING DEVIANT MOTION FOR POSSIBLE SPIN UPS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE
WIND DAMAGE IN BOWING SEGMENTS ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE DUE
TO LOW WBZ HEIGHTS (10000 FT). WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS AND FOLLOW
CLOSER TO WARMER GUID FOR MINS AS THE MAV HAS A COLD BIAS INITIALLY
WITH FROPAS.

TROUGH ASSCTD WITH UPPER LOW OVR NY/NEW ENGLAND WILL PASS ACROSS
ESTRN NC LATE TUE. MODEL RH FIELDS ARE VERY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME
SHALLOW MOIST AROUND 900 MB. GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER SYSTEM AND
ADVECTION OF COOL 500 MB TEMPS...WOULD EXPECT SOME SCT-BKN
STRATO-CU...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MY NRN COUNTIES. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
COUNTERACT CAA AND WILL GO WITH GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
MAINLY CLR SKIES EXPECTED TUE NIGHT BUT ALSO SHOULD BE SOME LOW
LEVEL MIXING AND WILL TEND TWRDS HIGHER GUID LOWS. CAROLINA BLUE
SKIES WILL PREVAIL WED AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRES DRIFTS EAST
JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE.

EFP: 00Z/12Z AVN RUNS VERY SIMILAR WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL MOVEMENT
OVER THE WEEKEND. BOTH ARE NOW FASTER IN BRINGING THE SYSTEM THROUGH
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH LOW CHC POPS BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT TOO HIGH WITH SUCH A LARGE CHANGE FROM YSTDY.
REMAINDER OF EFP SHOULD BE DRY WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS.

MARINE: STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT. DAYBREAK
SHOULD USHER NW 25 KT IN THE 20 NM CORRIDOR AS THE FRONT WILL BE
WELL OFFSHORE BY THEN. WILL WORD SOME TSTMS MAY BE SEVERE TONIGHT.
FOR MARINE INTERESTS...CALMER WATERS AND WINDS SLATED FOR WED THU.
INCREASED THREAT FOR RIPS STAY UP THIS AFTN LIKELY INTO TUE MORNIN.

.MHX...SCA FOR SOUNDS AND COASTAL WATERS.

ELARDO/COLBY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY, NC
922 PM EDT MON MAY 13 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0918 PM    5 SW ROBERSONVILLE        NC   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/13/02   MARTIN                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

JME