Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
309 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002

KYLE SPEEDING UP AND AVN APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE AGAIN THIS RUN.
MOST OF ACTION FOR CWA WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EXPECT TORNADO WATCH
TO BE RE-ISSUED FOR MHX AREA AND N. WILL ALSO POST FLOOD WATCH FOR
AREA AS MAY SEE LOCAL AMOUNTS APPROACH FFG 1 HR VALUES OF 3 INCHES.
AREA NEAR KYLE CENTER THAT WAS PRODUCING 1 HR 3-4 INCH AMOUNTS
EARLIER HAS DIMINISHED...BUT MAY SEE TRAINING ALONG INLAND BOUNDARY
THAT IS NOW MOVING E-NE AND ALSO NEAR COAST WITH BANDS COMING IN.

LULL IN ACTION NOW EXPECTED SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS KYLE EXITS...THEN
GOOD CHC AGAIN LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT MOVING IN. BRIEF
CLEARING MON...THEN SFC LOW DEVELOPES ON FRONT OFFSHORE AND BRINGS
OVERRUNNING RAIN OVER ERN NC LATE MON NIGHT AND TUE...MOVING OUT
EARLY WED. HIGH AND DRY FOR END OF WEEK.

MARINE: KYLE WILL TRACK ALONG OR JUST INLAND FROM THE SRN NC COAST
EARLY TONIGHT...TRAVERSING THE WRN PAMLICO SOUND BY MIDNIGHT THEN
EXITING THE NRN OBX PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. STRONGEST WINDS AS
XPCTD HAVE BEEN IN ERN SEMI-CRCL OVER WATER AND THIS TREND TO CONT.
WILL HAVE WAIT FOR NHC CONF CALL FOR FINAL HEADLINES BUT WITHOUT TS
WARNING HEADLINE WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE GALE FOR FQT GUST AOA 35
KT. FSPN7 8FT AT 18Z AND WILL BLD SEAS S OF HAT TO ARND 11 FEET TNGT
THEN SUBSIDE TO 5 TO 6 FEET BY SAT AFTN AS WIND TRAJ BECMS OFFSHORE.
SIMILARLY WILL BRING MAX SEAS LATE TNGT N OF HAT (8 TO 10 FT) THEN
SUBSIDE TO MARG SCA BY SAT AFTN. SUN LOOKS GOOD WITH LGT/VRBL WIND
AND EASY 4 FOOT 8-9 SEC E SWELL.

LATE NIGHT SUN INTO MON A BLOW OUT AS COLD FRONT BLASTS THRU AND
WHITE CAPS THE WATERS. EVEN AVN UNDERDONE AT TIMES IN AUTUMN CAA
SO WE DO XPCT SCA COND MONDAY AT MINIMUM. THUS SEAS TO BECOME
ENRAGED AGAIN BUT FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. WINDS TEND NE AND STAY
UP NR 20 KT MOST OF DAY SO SEAS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR SCA INTO TUE.

.MHX...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT AND PAMLICO
       AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
       TORNADO WATCH EASTERN NC INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS AND
       SOUNDS.
       FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

JBM/MC

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-111045-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT-MOREHEAD CITY NC
555 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002

CORRECTED TIMING OF KYLE

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...
TROPICAL STORM KYLE WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE AREA.  TWO TO
FOUR INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED.  STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 30 TO 35
MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS.

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT
TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

1

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
128 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0115 PM    2NW FALKLAND              NC   TORNADO
10/11/02   PITT                           REPORTED BY THE POLICE
                                          DEPARTMENT.