Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Medford, OR

SOUTHWEST OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
230 PM PDT THU FEB 07 2002

STORM PROGRESSING ON SCHEDULE WITH HEAVY RAIN AT THE COAST AND
SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOWS. HAVE BEEN FORTUNATE THAT SNOW LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED AT 4500 TO 5000 FEET TODAY...JUST ABOVE THE MAJOR MOUNTAIN
PASSES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 2500 TO 3000 FEET TONIGHT BUT THE
LARGE MAJORITY OF SNOW WILL FALL ABOVE 4000 TO 4500 FEET. BACK EDGE
OF THE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING
WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. DIRTY RIDGING FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR NORTH BEND.
OTHERWISE SHOULD BE A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MRF AND AVN HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE
SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY IS A FAST MOVING PATTERN WITH WEAK RIDGING
FOLLOWED BY WEAK TROUGHS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BEST CHANCE OF
A SHOWER NOW APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.  DW

.MFR...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AT COASTAL HEADLANDS
        AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY.
       BLIZZARD WARNING THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY.
       WINTER STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING SISKIYOU COUNTY
        ABOVE 4000 FT CAZ080>083 AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES
        AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY ORZ027/030.
       SNOW ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY
        FOOTHILLS...SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS...AND
        SOUTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. OR025/028/029/030/CAZ084.
       WIND ADVISORY REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON SHASTA VALLEY CAZ081.
       HIGH SURF ADVISORY ORZ021/022 EARLY EVENING.
       SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLORENCE TO PT ST GEORGE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OREGON
1249 PM PST THU FEB 07 2002

TIME(PST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1030 AM    MT SHASTA                 CA
02/07/02   SISKIYOU                       SPOTTER SY94...2 MILES
                                          NORTHWEST OF BLACK BUTTE
                                          SUMMIT...REPORTED SSE WIND
                                          25 GUSTING TO 46 MPH.

1100 AM    BROOKINGS                 OR
02/07/02   CURRY                          SPOTTER CU13...5 MILES
                                          NORTH...REPORTED 2.40
                                          INCHES RAIN 5PM TO 11AM.
                                          BEAUFORT WIND SCALE = 6.

1200 PM    BROOKINGS                 OR
02/07/02   CURRY                          SPOTTER CU15...3 MILES
                                          SOUTH OF CHETCO
                                          RIVER...REPORTED 1.50
                                          INCHES RAIN 8 AM TO 8AM
                                          AND 0.86 INCHES 8AM TO 12
                                          NOON. ESTIMATED WIND GUSTS
                                          TO 45 MPH.

1230 PM    BROOKINGS                 OR
02/07/02   CURRY                          SPOTTER CU21...AT
                                          ELEVATION OF 800
                                          FT...REPORTED ESTIMATED
                                          WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
                                          MPH.