Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
222 PM EST WED APR 3 2002

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP AS EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA ZONES AT THIS HOUR. STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY EAST INTO UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
WILL FORECAST SCATTERED EVENING STORMS EAST ZONES FIRST PERIOD AS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. ALSO...WILL EXPECT
SCATTERED ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED
INSTABILITY AND ACTIVE SEABREEZES. HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE LEVELS...
WEAK WINDS AND GOOD RADIATION SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG INTERIOR
AND WEST ZONES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUASI-STATIONARY AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL BECOME
DIFFUSE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY BUT STILL SQUEAK THROUGH TO THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA BY EARLY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR FRIDAY. INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE TOO LOW FOR STORMS. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD...
HOWEVER WILL STICK CLOSER TO AVN GIVEN RECENT PERFORMANCE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEHIND THE
FRONT. NO OTHER MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE HORIZON OTHERWISE.
EXTENDED PERIODS WILL FEATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS AND A FEW
SHOWERS EAST ZONES WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW.

WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREAS WILL BE LIGHT NEXT 48 HOURS THEN
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. BY SUNDAY AVN HERALDING
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS SCENARIO REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS SO WILL FORECAST 20 KNOTS MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
(STILL A BIT LOWER THAN AVN).

NO PROBLEMS FOR FIRE WEATHER WITH CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS.

PBI BB 068/086 067/081 065 24342
FLL BB 071/086 070/082 068 24342
MIA BB 070/087 069/082 067 24342
APF BB 068/085 067/082 064 24042

.MIA...NONE.