Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
300 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROF EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. GOOD UPPER WIND AND MOISTURE FIELDS SUPPORT
SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. SHEAR IS RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY A STRAIGHT LINE WIND EVENT. HOWEVER...IF
LINE DOES NOT FILL IN COMPLETELY...THEN THE DYNAMICS WOULD BETTER
SUPPORT TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

BASE OF UPPER TROF SETTLES INTO REGION TOMORROW. MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY SCOUR OUT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY PARTLY
AND PERHAPS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW. CRUD CLOUDS SHOULD STAY
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH WILL TRACK OVER N IL.
MESOETA INDICATES THAT THE FURTHEST SOUTHWARD EXTEND TOMORROW SHOULD
BE SO IL. STRONG CAA TOMORROW...CURRENT FCST TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.
EXPECT THAT HIGHS WILL COME IN BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES AS INDICATED BY
925MB TEMPS.

ANOTHER SHORTWV WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER TROF MON NIGHT AND HELP TO
FURTHER DEEPEN IT. THIS WILL OFFER A REENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A DISTURBANCE IN THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SWING THRU DURING THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO INTRODUCE POPS. SKIES WILL
BECOME MO CLDY NORTH EARLY IN THE EVENING AND MORE OVERNIGHT SOUTH.
CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROF NOW POSITIONED OVER SE US. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO REGION AND MODEST WAA RETURNS. GFS IS INDICATING SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SWINGS THRU AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH MO CLEAR CONDITIONS.
GUIDANCE VALUES AND 850 TEMPS SUGGEST HIGHS OF UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60.

NEXT TROF APPROACHES ON THURSDAY...SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A CHANCE OF RAIN THAT NIGHT. WITH NO
REAL CHANGE INDICATED BY 850 TEMPS...HIGHS LOOK TO BE AROUND 60
STILL.

TROF MOVES THRU REGION LATE FRIDAY. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE AROUND FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLEARING TREND
LATE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP MO CLDY GOING FOR TIME BEING AND CHANCE OF
RA AS WELL. BELIEVE MEX VALUES FOR FRI ARE TOO WARM (TEMPS TEND TO
COOL DOWN AFTER FROPA.)

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN EUROPEAN AND GFS IN TERMS OF
STRENGTH OF COLD AIR FOR WEEKEND. EUROPEAN BRING COLD AIR MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH...WHILE GFS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE. GFS IS VERY AGGRESSIVE
IN MOVING OUT UPPER TROF AND BRINGS STRONG WAA BACK FOR SATURDAY.
WILL TREND UP TEMPS FROM CURRRENT FCST...BUT NOT READY TO BITE ALL
THE WAY.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV ADVANCES UPON THE REGION. MOISTURE IS OF
QUESTION SO WILL GO PT.CLDY FOR NOW AND KEEP THINGS DRY. WILL NOT
WARM TEMPS UP MUCH FROM SAT AS SHRTWV LOOKS AS IF IT MAY COME THRU
DURING THE DAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS
MEM BE 050/057 041/050 035 403
MKL BE 049/056 037/049 034 503
JBR BE 045/056 038/050 034 203
TUP BE 054/061 040/050 035 504

.MEG...TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL OF WESTERN TN...MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
MUCH OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS UNTIL 900 PM CST.

VALLE

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-111000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1121 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND A MODERATE RISK TO THE WEST OF THE RIVER.
EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO
EASTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO A
LINE AND MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE TIME OF GREATEST
CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM FOR EAST ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM FOR WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
COOLER TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY PREVAIL
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A QUICK CHANCE OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY BEFORE
CLEARING OUT FOR THE WEEKEND.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN
YOUR AREA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...TELEVISION OR RADIO
STATIONS FOR LATER STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.