Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
330 PM CST SAT NOV 9 2002

A 500MB SHORTWAVE OVER AR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE CWA
TNT. SCT TSTMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
INSTABILITY IS STILL THE QUESTION MARK WHILE WIND SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...SO SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN MAINLY NRN AREAS TNT IF
TSTM DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR. CLEARING IS OCCURRING BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE FOR NOW...BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO FILL IN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AS THE MOIST LOW LEVEL JET IS STILL IMPRESSIVE.

A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NW PART OF THE
CWA SUN AND CLEAR THE ENTIRE CWA SUN NITE. WILL CONTINUE THE SCT
TSTMS SUN WITH SVR WORDING. WILL LINGER THE TSTM CHCS SUN
NITE...ESPECIALLY SE. A SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP A SMALL CHC OF SHWRS IN
THE SE MON WITH A FEW SPRINKES ELSEWHERE.

A DRY SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW TUE AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE LWR MS VLY WED-THU. THE NEXT CHC OF RAIN WILL BE
FRI WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FOLLOWED BY
DRIER WX NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIM VALUES...
MEM 66/73/49/58/38/55 353100
MKL 63/72/48/56/35/52 453100
JBR 62/70/44/56/35/53 442100
TUP 66/75/54/60/38/55 355200

.MEG...NONE.

SWC

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-101100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
440 AM CST SAT NOV 9 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM NEBRASKA INTO WISCONSIN WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
MAY ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND THE NORTH HALF OF WEST TENNESSEE. IF THE
STORMS DEVELOP...DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE TIME OF GREATEST
CONCERN WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 10 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
AND THE NORTH HALF OF WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF CONCERN ON SUNDAY WOULD BE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH...WITH THE TIME OF MAIN CONCERN AGAIN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.