Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
222 PM CST FRI MAR 29 2002

EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH CONT TO INHIBIT CONVECTION
OVR THE MID SOUTH. LAPS ANALYSIS DOES SHOW CAP WEAKENING OVR NE AR
JUST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. CAP WL CONT TO WEAKENING THIS AFTN AND
STORMS WL CONT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...PERHAPS EVENTUALLY
EVOLVING INTO A LINE THAT MOVES E/SE ACRS THE CWFA DURING THE
EVENING. CURRENTLY...LIFTED INDICES OF -4 TO -6 WITH CAPES
APPROACHING 3000 J/KG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S SW OF MEM.
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...THE CAP JUST NEEDS TO BE
BROKEN. OF COURSE THIS WOULD BE EASIER IF THE UPPER SUPPORT WERE MORE
IMPRESSIVE...INSTEAD WE WL HAVE TO RELY ON THE LIFTING IN ADVANCE OF
THE SFC FNT. WL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN ALL
ZONES EXCEPT NE AR AND MO BOOTHEEL SINCE THE FRONT WL HAVE PASSED
THROUGH THERE LATE THIS AFTN.

WL HAVE TO CUT POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT SINCE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN SO
SLOW. WL LEAVE CATEGORICAL ACRS NE MS SINCE THE FRONT WL HAVE PLENTY
OF TIME TO KICK OFF PRECIP BY THE TIME IT GETS THERE. COOLER AIR TO
MOVE IN BEHIND FRONT AND TOOK A COMPROMISE OF THE MAV/FWC NUMBERS.
FRONT WL MOVE TO JUST S OF THE CWFA BY 12Z. EXPECT SOME SCT RAIN
ACRS N MS SAT MORNING BUT DRY AND CLOUDY ELSW. RAIN WL START PUSHING
BACK INTO THE CWFA DURING SAT AFTN AS AN UPR LOW BEGINS TO MOVE E
OUT OF TX AND OVERRUNNING STARTS TO DEVELOP ACRS THE FRONT JUST S OF
THE CWFA. A SFC LOW WL TRACK NE ALONG THE FRONT SAT NIGHT AND BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN. PUT IN SOME THUNDER ACRS N MS SINCE SHOWALTER
APPROACH ZERO AND ELEVATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE.

SYSTEM WL EXIT SUNDAY...EXPECT IT DRY OUT DURING THE AFTN. HI PRES
BUILDS IN FOR SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NEXT FRONT ON TRACK FOR TUE AFTN
AND EVENING. MORE DRY WEATHER WED-SAT.

.MEG...NONE
SJM

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-300000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 AM CST FRI MAR 29 2002

THIS SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS WEST TENNESSEE...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID-SOUTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PUSH WARM...MOIST AND VERY
UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MANY OF THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH A
PARTICULAR AREA.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

PEOPLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD KEEP ALERT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES THAT LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. YOU SHOULD NOW
PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. KNOW WHAT YOU WOULD
DO WHEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-300400-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
158 PM CST FRI MAR 29 2002

THIS SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS WEST TENNESSEE...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID-SOUTH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS HAVE PUSHED WARM...MOIST AND VERY
UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT. THE
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH A
PARTICULAR AREA.

STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

PEOPLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD KEEP ALERT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WATCHES THAT LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. YOU SHOULD NOW
PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. KNOW WHAT YOU WOULD
DO WHEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.