Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
240 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002

STRONG SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH MOVING INTO WISCONSIN AT 19Z WHILE THE
BAJA LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.  AT THE SURFACE THE FRONT IS
STRETCHED ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS NEAR KLBB AND STILL MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTH...BUT PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS MORNING...WHICH WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING.

COUPLE OF CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST TONIGHT.  WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND APPROACH OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC
SUPPORT IS MARGINAL...BUT WE WILL BE RATHER UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT GET GOING WILL BE HAIL...
BUT THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS WINDS(SEE SWODY1).
TOMORROW...WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA ACTING AS A FOCUS...DIFLUENT
FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE BAJA LOW MOVING IN TO THE AREA...AND PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE (PWATS OF 1.4 TO 1.5 THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD)...WE HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  LOOKS LIKE
PRETTY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS THE CWA OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL ALSO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.  WILL OPT NOT TO PUT OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...
AND LET THE OVERNIGHT CREW GET A BETTER LOOK.

AS FAR AS THE FRONT ITSELF IS CONCERNED...WINDS WILL BE TURNING TO
THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SURGES SOUTHWARD.  FAIRLY SLOW
PROGRESS RIGHT NOW SHOULD BE HELPED LATER AS CONVECTION GETS GOING
AND THE SUN GOES DOWN.  TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE A BIT
COOLER THAN TODAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL IN THE AREA...AND
MAY GO EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  MOS NUMBERS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS WITH ALL THE CLOUD-COVER AND RAIN.  WILL PROBABLY
NOT GO THAT LOW HOWEVER.  WILL UP POPS A LITTLE MORE AS GUIDANCE IS
GOING PRETTY MUCH 80% OR GREATER TOMORROW.  WILL KEEP POPS PRETTY
MUCH AS THEY ARE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT...GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE OR
CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BAJA LOW IS STILL APPROACHING THE AREA.
TUESDAY...THE BAJA LOW WILL BE MOVING OVER OUR CWA KEEPING POPS IN
THE AREA EITHER SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE.  FINALLY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
THE LOW SHOULD GET PICKED UP IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW...OPEN UP AND
STARTING HEADING NORTHEAST.

NO CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

MAF  58/62/51/72    364
LSA  55/60/49/70    364
6R6  59/73/57/77    233
MRF  50/65/50/72    254
CNM  55/62/52/73    265

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

SN

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.THROUGH OVERNIGHT...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS EVENING.

.MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN
LOW ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL. WIND PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.