Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
318 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2002

UPDATE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 143 GOES INTO EFFECT AT 330 AM.
ZONES WILL BE LATE DUE TO LAST MINUTE RECONFIGURING.

COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS WEEK AS SPRING SEEMS TO HAVE FINALLY
SPRUNG. EARLIER THIS MONTH...LARGE SCALE PATTERN TRANSITIONED FROM
ONE TYPICAL OF LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING TO ONE TYPICAL OF EARLY
SUMMER. NOW...WE HAVE REGRESSED TO SPRING.

SURFACE FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH SUNDAY ALREADY RETURNING
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TX THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE READILY EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER MO...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON THE TAIL OF THE WAVE ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER. THESE
STORMS SHOULD FIND THEIR WAY INTO OUR CWFA BY MID MORNING...AND THEN
WEAKEN SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM LOW LEVEL JET AXIS
AND THE MO SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. CONSIDERABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS BEFORE THEY WEAKEN.

CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND THEIR EFFECTS ON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
THE MAIN PROBLEMS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE STORMS WEAKEN. THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...MESOETA PROGS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO FIRE
OVER NORTHEAST OK NEAR LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND ON NOSE OF STRONG
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS FORECAST
TO BE MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS ROUND OF STORMS THAN WITH THE
ONGOING ONES...SUGGESTING GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL. FAR NORTHERN
ZONES MAY ALSO SEE TRAINING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. SURFACE
COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...REACHING NORTHWEST
AR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MORE STORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ATMOSPHERE
FINALLY DRIES OUT BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT ONLY FOR A SHORT
TIME AGAIN...AS AVN SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED STORMS INVADING
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT. NEXT COLD FRONT THEN DRIES US OUT
AGAIN SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE NOT YET SEEN NEW MRF...BUT
OLD MRF SUGGESTS ONE MORE REPETITION OCCURRING MONDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

HRO   73  59  71  39 /  50  70  70  10
LIT   77  62  79  49 /  30  20  50  40
HOT   78  63  78  50 /  30  20  50  40
PBF   79  63  80  52 /  20  20  40  50

.LZK...
AR...NONE.

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ARZ003-004-012-013-021>023-030-031-037>043-054-231300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
346 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2002

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR
ABOUT THE NORTHWESTERN ONE THIRD OF ARKANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND HAD SPREAD INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS
BY 315 AM CDT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS.

THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING
WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CASES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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ARZ003>007-012>016-021>024-030>033-037>045-052>056-062-231830-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT TUE APR 23 2002

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN MUCH OF
   ARKANSAS...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TODAY
AND TONIGHT FOR ALL BUT EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

THE BEST THREATS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS MORNING IN
NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND LATER TONIGHT...MOSTLY IN WESTERN
ARKANSAS.

A WARM FRONT WAS MOVING NORTH ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS BRINGING WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR BACK INTO
ARKANSAS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS LATER
THIS MORNING. TONIGHT...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING IN NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD INTO NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS DURING THE MORNING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL BUT ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WIND.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN.
HOWEVER...THEY MAY RE-INTENSIFY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS.

LATER TONIGHT MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN OKLAHOMA AND
WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...POSSIBLY REACHING CENTRAL
ARKANSAS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE LARGE HAIL.

SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND HAM RADIO OPERATORS MAY NEED
TO BE ACTIVATED AT ANY TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
ARKANSAS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR THE LATEST WEATHER
INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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