Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
250 PM CST SUN MAR 17 2002

FORECAST CONCERNS: WARM FRONT MOVEMENT/POPS...TEMPS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

ITS THE TALE BETWEEN TWO AIRMASSES THIS AFTN...WITH WARM FRONT
LOCATED VCNTY EXTREME SERN AR ATTM. BAND OF ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOLY NWD AS WELL AND HAS WORKED INTO CNTRL AR.
CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN OVER NRN AR. TEMPS RUNNING IN THE 40S AND 50S
NORTH OF THE BNDRY...WITH LOWER 80S INTO NWRN LA

MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT TODAY WITH OVERALL TRENDS FOR THIS
FCST. THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER PROGRESSION AS FAR AS THE
UPPER TROF COMING OUT OF THE SWRN STATES. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...SWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIRECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ACRS THE FA
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...RESULTING IN PERSISTENT PRECIP CHANCES. ALSO...
THE MODELS NOW FOCUSING HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR MUCH OF WRN AND
NRN AR STARTING LATE TOMORROW THRU TUESDAY. AGAIN WENT WITH THE ETA
AND AVN SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FCST.

FOR TNGT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND N OF THE WARM
FRONT...SO WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS CNTRL AND SRN ZONES. MAY PLACE A
SMALL POP OVER NRN ZONES FOR CONTINUITY...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN 20%
PLANNED. EXPECT SOME COOLING OVER NRN AR THIS EVENING WITH LIMITED
CLOUD COVER. CNTRL AND SRN AR WILL LIKELY SEE STEADY OR RISING TEMPS
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. COULD ALSO SEE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING LATER THIS EVENING IF RAIN AXIS STALLS OUT.
HOWEVER...WITH UNCERTAINTY OF BNDRY PROGRESSION AND FFG VALUES
RUNNING ARND 2 INCHES/3 HOURS...PLAN NO FFA ATTM.

WARM FRONT PROGGED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NWD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
SITUATE ITSELF ALONG THE EDGE OF THE OUACHITA/OZARKS BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE BNDRY. FEEL THAT PRIMARY THREAT OF FLOODING
WILL BE DURING THE 3RD AND 4TH PERIODS...SO WILL NOT HEADLINE WITH A
FFA ATTM...BUT WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. LATER SHIFTS WILL
LIKELY HAVE TO CONSIDER POSTING A FF WATCH.

TEMPS THROUGHOUT THIS FCST WILL BE A MAJOR HEADACHE. PLAN TO USE A
BLEND OF NGM AND AVN MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS. MOS LOWS LOOK REASONABLE
MOST AREAS BASED ON FRONTAL POSITION.

IN THE EXTENDED...UPPER TROF IS PROGGED TO LIFT OF THE SWRN STATES
AND MOVES THRU THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THRU TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING AND END TO THE
RAIN CHANCES. DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A PIECE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FA LATE IN THE WEEK. COULD SEE SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANCES ALONG FROPA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LONGER RANGE
PROGS STILL NOT HIGH.

THANKS TO WFO/S TUL AND SGF FOR FCST COORDINATION THIS AFTN.  ..44..

.LZK...NONE.