Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
327 PM CST FRI MAR 15 2002

FORECAST CONCERNS: SVR WX POTENTIAL EARLY...THEN TEMP AND POP TRENDS.

CURRENT SFC/MSAS DATA SHOWS FRONT HAS MADE A LITTLE SEWD PROGRESS
FROM THIS MRNG. CURRENTLY THE BNDRY RUNS FROM KARG...TO KRUE...TO
KMWT TO KDEQ. A SFC WAVE WAS ALSO NOTED OVER SWRN AR. CAP TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN CONTINUE TO THIS EVENING AS UPPER
SUPPORT/COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVE INTO THE FA. ALREADY SEE SOME TSRA
STARTING TO FIRE OVER CNTRL AND SWRN AR. MEANWHILE...ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO AFFECT WRN AND NRN AR...N OF THE BNDRY.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL FCST TRENDS FOR THE
PERIOD. UPPER FLOW STILL PROGGED TO REMAIN FROM THE SW FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING THRU THE UPPER FLOW
WILL BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WX THRU THE WEEKEND. TIMING OF EACH
RAIN EVENT WILL BE A HEADACHE FOR THIS FCST. WENT WITH A BLEND OF
THE ETA AND AVN FOR THIS PACKAGE.

SFC LOW WILL TRACK NEWD THIS EVENING...THIS SHOULD ALLOW CDFNT TO
WORK THRU THE REST OF THE FA TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
POPS OVER WRN AND NRN ZONES MAINLY EARLY TNGT...WITH LIKELY POPS
ELSEWHERE. SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY.

NEXT UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHRA TO MOST AREAS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...AS SFC FRONT DRIFTS NWD. THEN EXPECT
ANOTHER BREAK IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. YET
ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. FRONT FINALLY GETS A GOOD PUSH SEWD BY
MIDWEEK. MAJOR DIFFERENCES NOTED IN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS...SO
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM.

TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CLOUDS/RAIN WILL
KEEP TEMPS DOWN...ESPECIALLY OVER SERN AR. TRENDED WITH MOS FOR
TEMPS ALL PERIODS.

WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED OVER MUCH OF AR...THE ADDITIONAL
RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SH ISSUED AN ESF FOR THE REGION TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.  ..44..

.LZK...NONE.

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-160000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CST FRI MAR 15 2002

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL BUT
EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS HAVE BROUGHT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO THE NATURAL STATE. A STRONG...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG JET
STREAM WINDS REACH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE STORMS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHEAST...AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT MOST OF ARKANSAS BY
MIDNIGHT.

DUE TO THE INSTABILITY OF THE AIRMASS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IF THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO
ORGANIZE INTO A LINE...BUT THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER THE
STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF ARKANSAS. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...SO THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...AND
AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

57

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-160000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CST FRI MAR 15 2002

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL BUT
EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

STRONG SOUTH WINDS HAVE BROUGHT AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO THE NATURAL STATE. A STRONG...SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...THE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG JET
STREAM WINDS REACH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE STORMS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NORTHEAST...AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT MOST OF ARKANSAS BY
MIDNIGHT.

DUE TO THE INSTABILITY OF THE AIRMASS...AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL. THERE MAY
ALSO BE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IF THE STORMS ARE ABLE TO
ORGANIZE INTO A LINE...BUT THIS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR AFTER THE
STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF ARKANSAS. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...SO THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...ONE OR TWO TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...AND
AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

57