Severe Thunderstorm Warning 313, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1033 AM CST WED DEC 18 2002

AM SENDING OUT AN UPDATE TO ADJUST MAXES UP A LITTLE. ALSO ADJUSTED
THE HOURLY GRIDS TO BETTER FIT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. GRAPHICS AND
GRIDS OUT. TEXT PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

FCSTID =   57

.LZK...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1 PM FOR ARZ003>007-012>015-021>023-
030>031-037>039.

..........PREV DISCUSSION 305 AM CST WED DEC 18 2002..........

FORECAST LOOKING A LITTLE OMINOUS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE FROM THE
PLAINS...WITH UPPER TROUGH BECOMING MORE IN PHASE WITH FRONT
TONIGHT. AS THE PHASING OCCURS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
IN AN ALREADY WARM AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

IN THE SHORT TERM...MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER SHALLOW IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SOME CAPPING ALOFT WILL PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR AWHILE. HOWEVER...HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...CAPPING BECOMES MINIMAL AND MOISTURE DEEPENS. DATA
KEYING ON MAIN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY THIS EVENING IN ABOUT THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE.

QUITE A BIT OF WIND ENERGY TO PLAY WITH...AND SHEAR RATHER
SIGNIFICANT. GIVEN THIS...SPC NOTING THAT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...
AND WOULD HAVE TO AGREE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH THE STORMS
MOSTLY SURFACE BASED.

ANYWAY...HAVE MENTIONED THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE
FORECAST TODAY/TONIGHT WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. AFTER A LINGERING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE
STATE FROM THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD...DRY AND COOLER ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY...BUT MENTIONED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS IT GOES BY. MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL ON
SUNDAY.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
MONDAY/TUESDAY.

FCSTID =   46
HRO   64  42  57  34 /  50  40  10  10
LIT   70  50  64  40 /  50  60  30  10
HOT   69  48  63  39 /  50  40  10  10
PBF   72  52  66  41 /  30  80  30  10

.LZK...NONE.

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-191100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
120 PM CST WED DEC 18 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MOST OF WEST-CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ELSEWHERE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT

THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...AND WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH ARKANSAS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE...AND ANY SUCH STORMS COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES AS WELL AS LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. A CHANCE OF
RAIN AND WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY IN MOST OF ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON
OR THIS EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...INCLUDING WARNINGS AND
STATEMENTS...VISIT THE LITTLE ROCK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE
AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/LZK

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
952 AM CST WED DEC 18 2002

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0935 AM    HARRISON                  AR   .75 INCH HAIL
12/18/02   BOONE                          DIME SIZE HAIL COVERING
                                          THE GROUND. REPORTED BY
                                          MEDIA.

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