Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 25 2002

MCS ADVERTISED BY MODELS THE LAST TWO DAYS HAS DEVELOPED BUT IS NOT
AS WIDESPREAD AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWEST OF WHERE IT WAS
PROGGED. THAT MUCH COMES AS NO SURPRISE. MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE
FORECAST IS TO FIGURE OUT HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND LATER TODAY. LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES WILL GET
MOST OF THE RAIN THIS MORNING AND INTO SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTHERN SECTIONS, WHICH LOOKED LIKE THEY WOULD GET HIT
THE HARDEST ORIGINALLY, WILL LIKELY ESCAPE WITH ONLY SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. PRESSURE PATTERN
SUGGESTS COLD FRONT IS INTO NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT ISSUE TIME ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF IT.
FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH MAINLY FROM CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES
BUT WILL BE HELPED BY INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH 20 PERCENT POPS IN
THE NORTH FOR TODAY AND 50 PERCENT ELSEWHERE, WITH CHANCES DECREASING
THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT, OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
STATE AROUND 00Z, AND MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR
EARLY TONIGHT IN CASE FRONT OR CONVECTION IS SLOWER MOVING OUT THAN
EXPECTED. SOME MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA INTO MONDAY BUT UPPER
LOW WILL BE CLOSING OFF EAST OF THE AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVES ARE INDICATED AFFECTING THIS CWA. MOS AND SPC DAY TWO GUIDANCE
INDICATE LITTLE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MONDAY, SO WILL DROP MENTION OF
RAIN FOR MONDAY. PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WILL DROP
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH FIVE STRAIGHT DRY DAYS IN ARKANSAS
WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS RARE. AVN SHOWS A SHORT WAVE COMING
AROUND BY SATURDAY, SO WILL KEEP THE SMALL POPS IN FOR THEN. TEMPS
WILL BE SLOW TO RISE IN MANY AREAS THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES, BUT CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE BY AFTERNOON
TO ALLOW SOME LATE HEATING. WILL GO A LITTLE BELOW MOS ON MAXES.
TEMP FORECASTS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WERE KEPT ABOUT THE SAME
AS ON THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

.LZK...NONE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK, AR
329 AM CDT SUN AUG 25 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0315 AM    DANVILLE                  AR   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
08/25/02   YELL

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK, AR
423 AM CDT SUN AUG 25 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0400 AM    DANVILLE                  AR   FLASH FLOODS
08/25/02   YELL                           STREET FLOODING IN
                                          DANVILLE. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0330 AM    CHISMVILLE                AR   WIND DAMAGE
08/25/02   LOGAN                          TRESS DOWN OVER HIGHWAY
                                          23. TREES DOWN ALL ACROSS
                                          THE COUNTY. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT