Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2002

UPPER LOW REMAINS IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
WITH THE MOST COVERAGE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. OVERALL COVERAGE ABOUT
20 PERCENT...SO POPS A LITTLE OVERFORECAST FOR TODAY. TROF STILL PROGGED
TO DRIFT NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN AS HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE. IT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO A POSITION TO PUT ALL OF ARKANSAS ON THE FAVORED EAST
SIDE FOR COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SOME CHANCE OF RAIN ALL THE TIME THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...SO WILL CARRY POPS BOTH DAY AND NIGHT. WITH THE
UPPER LOW THE STRONGEST THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT POPS
DURING THE NIGHT IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS WITH 50 PERCENT POPS
FOR THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS. POPS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AFTER THAT AS
THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH 30 PERCENT POPS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND 20 PERCENT THE REST OF THE DAY. MODELS SHOW A FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATER IN THE WEEK BUT IT LIKELY WILL
BE LITTLE MORE THAN A BOUNDARY TO FOCUS CONVECTION AND ITS LOCATION
WILL BE DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES. BY THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK...UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR WITH MAXES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S
AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS IN THE
SHORT TERM WILL GENERALLY BE MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE
NORTH WITH NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE 70 ELSEWHERE AND MAXES MID 80S IN
THE NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.

.LZK...NONE