Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
307 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

FORECAST CONCERNS: TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

REMNANTS OF OLD MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE FA WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL AND SRN AR THE PAST FEW HOURS. HAVE
HAD SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS AT TIMES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE EWD THRU THE EVENING AND WILL ADJUST POP FCST BASED ON
TRENDS JUST PRIOR TO PRESS TIME. ILL-DEFINED SFC BNDRY STILL APPEARS
TO BE SOMEWHERE OVR SRN THIS AFTN. DEWPOINTS HAVE REBOUNDED BACK
INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER NRN AR...WITH MID 60S TO NEAR 70 COMMON
ELSEWHERE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK.
WEAK UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS
THE FA THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES
HANDLED A BIT DIFFERENT BY EACH MODEL. MODELS DO SHOW A PATTERN
SHIFT LATE IN THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WRN STATES
AND A TROF OVER THE ERN U.S.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND THEN DECREASE AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES E OF THE
REGION. LOWS TNGT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.

WITH LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT ON MONDAY...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE. THINK ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST. FOR CONTINUITY...WILL CONTINUE WITH 20% POPS FOR
THE FA.

ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL APCH THE FA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY FROM THE PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE NWRN AR WILL SEE THE BEST
CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. SCATTERED COVERAGE STILL THE WAY TO GO FOR POPS
OVER MOST OF THE FA.

ONCE AGAIN...ALL THE MOS TEMP GUIDANCE AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
MOST PERIODS. PLAN ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN SOME AREAS.

IN THE EXTENDED...MEANDERING UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES INTO MOST SECTIONS WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY. SYSTEM GETS OUT OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE WEST. DRIER WX FCST TO ARRIVE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IN THIS PART OF THE
COUNTRY...NWLY FLOW ALOFT BEARS WATCHING FOR ANY IMPULSES THAT MAY
DROP SEWD. WILL KEEP POPS OUT OF THE LATER PDS FOR NOW. SEASONABLE
TEMPS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART AS AIRMASS BEHIND FRONT IS PACIFIC
ORIGIN.  ..44..

.LZK...NONE.