Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2002

FORECAST CONCERNS: TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

LATEST MSAS DATA SHOWING COLD FRONT OVER NWRN AR WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROF RUNNING FROM SERN MO BACK INTO SERN OK ATTM. HAVE BEEN SEEING
SOME SHRA/TSRA FORM ALONG THE TROF AND THE FRONT THIS AFTN. TEMPS
RUNNING FROM THE 60S OVER FAR NWRN AR TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL TRENDS...BUT DO DIFFER
SOMEWHAT WITH PLACEMENT OF FRONT AND ASSOCIATED QPF. UPPER FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE FA THE NEXT 48 HOURS RESULTING
IN A CONTINUED CHC OF SHRA/TSRA. LOOKING AT LESS AREAL COVERAGE ON
MONDAY AS FRONT FALLS APART AND LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT.

LATEST RUC STILL SHOWING SHALLOW COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND BNDRY WILL
TEND TO HANG UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OZARKS EARLY TONIGHT
AND THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER CNTRL AR LATE TONIGHT. ETA IS
THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN TAKING THE FRONT FURTHER SWD ON
SUNDAY...WITH THE AVN IN THE MIDDLE. WENT MORE WITH THE AVN FOR THIS
FCST.

STILL THINK THE BNDRY WILL FALL APART OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...BUT ANY LEFTOVER MESOSCALE BNDRY/S WILL STILL BE ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY POPS OVER MOST AREAS INTO MONDAY. BETTER CHANCES WILL BE
OVER CNTRL AND SRN AR WHERE HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE.

AFTER BRIEF COOLDOWN N OF THE FRONT TONIGHT OVER NWRN AR...TEMPS
WILL NOT SHOW MUCH CHANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL THE MOS OUTPUT
TEMPS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EACH OTHER...SO PLAN NO MAJOR
DEVIATIONS ATTM.

IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS UPPER TROF DRIFTS INTO THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE WRN STATES AND GETS CUTOFF FROM THE NRN STREAM
FLOW. PLAN TO PLACE SCATTERED POPS IN STARTING TUESDAY THRU
THURSDAY. DRIER AND SEASONABLE WX TO FOLLOW FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
..44..

.LZK...NONE.

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