Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2002

COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FIGURE ON IT
MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN MODELS SHOW, WHICH HAS BEEN THE GENERAL
CASE IN RECENT MONTHS. EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, DETERMINED BY THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND RESULTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. FIGURE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING,
AFFECTING ALL BUT SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS
THIS MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST. DRYING MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST
BY AFTERNOON, AND FIGURE MAIN THRUST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL DECREASE POPS IN THE
NORTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. FIGURE ON SOME WARMING IN THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY BEFORE THE STORMS ARRIVE, WITH MAXES REACHING NEAR OR A LITTLE
ABOVE 80, BUT OTHER AREAS WILL SHOW LITTLE WARMING WITH MAXES IN THE
70S IN MOST AREAS. MAIN MOISTURE AXIS MOVES INTO THE SOUTH TONIGHT
WHERE THE FRONT STALLS. WILL GO WITH LOW POPS IN CENTRAL SECTIONS
AND 40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR TONIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN, BUT THINK MAIN COOLING WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE AND WILL GO A LITTLE ABOVE MOS ON MINS. FRONT REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH MODEST MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE
AREA. MAY SEE A REPEAT OF PAST SITUATIONS, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND TEMPS REMAINING COOL. WILL GO WITH MAXES MOSTLY IN THE 60S FOR
FRIDAY AND 40 PERCENT POPS OVER THE WHOLE AREA. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS WITH
WARM ADVECTION, MOSTLY TO THE WEST. FRONT SHOULD MOVE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WILL BROAD BRUSH 30 PERCENT
POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN WILL GO WITH LOWER POPS TO THE SOUTH FOR
SATURDAY. TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN SHOULD SEE
MAXES RETURN TO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS SATURDAY.

.LZK...NONE